What’s Next in San Diego’s Mayoral Special Election Runoff?

by on November 26, 2013 · 3 comments

in Faulconer vs Alvarez, Government, Politics, Voter Guide Special Election

Alvarez and FaulconerBy Andy Cohen

This past Sunday I had the opportunity to participate in a panel discussion on the mayoral special election, hosted by the Pt. Loma Democratic Club.  The panelists included La Prensa’s Daniel Muñoz, San Diego Voice and Viewpoint’s Dr. John Warren, NBC San Diego’s Wendy Fry (a veritable rock star in San Diego reporting circles), and myself from the ‘lil ‘ol San Diego Free Press.

The discussion centered not only on the primary race itself, but on where we go from here?  What kind of campaign are we likely to see in the coming months leading up to the February runoff to determine who will fill out the remainder of Bob Filner’s term?

Some things to consider about this race:  Unlike the June 2012 primary, which featured two Republicans, a converted Independent, and only one Democrat, the 2013 primary featured three rather prominent Democrats and only one Republican.  But, like 2012, the Republican frontrunner carried the day, winning a plurality of the vote.

However, in the November 2012 general election, San Diegans did something almost unprecedented:  They voted for the Progressive Democrat over the neo-conservative Republican.  With two extremes represented, the voters swung left.  Will voters do the same in February?

Some numbers to consider:  Republican Kevin Faulconer finished 15 percentage points ahead of the second place finisher, Democrat David Alvarez, 42% to 27%.  Nathan Fletcher finished third with just over 24%.  This was a low turnout election, with an estimated 30% of registered voters in San Diego actually participating, and with low turnout elections typically favoring Republican candidates, it’s not all that surprising that Faulconer—the Republican establishment chosen one—finished on top.

But consider these other numbers, and Faulconer’s margin of victory does seem somewhat surprising:   For the November 19 election, there were a total of 683,370 registered voters in the City of San Diego.  There were 272,785 registered Democrats, 193,832 registered “Decline to State” voters, and 181,469 registered Republicans.  Republicans were outnumbered by Democrats by more than 91,000 voters, and by Decline to State voters by more than 12,000.

The three major Democratic candidates received over 32,000 more votes than did Kevin Faulconer,  which presents a major problem for Alvarez heading in to February:  In order to beat Faulconer, he’s going to have to corral an overwhelming majority of those votes, particularly those votes that went for Nathan Fletcher.

If, as La Prensa’s Muñoz predicted, Fletcher voters end up splitting roughly 50/50 between the two runoff candidates, Alvarez is in trouble.  Which raises the first of many questions for the Alvarez campaign to grapple with:  What can they do to convince Fletcher voters to swing their way?  It was Muñoz’ assertion that a majority of Fletcher votes came from the northern parts of the city (and according to an inewsource.org analysis, he appears to be correct), which undisputedly is Faulconer territory.  Those Fletcher voters, he says, are more likely to break for Faulconer than for the liberal Alvarez.

At a press conference last week following the election, Fletcher announced his retirement from politics, having clearly soured on the profession after what was a dispiriting defeat, and a campaign where he seemed to have few friends and plenty of political enemies:  You can survive attacks from the GOP establishment or from Labor, he said, but you can’t survive simultaneous attacks from both.  Fletcher got hammered from both sides, and for the second time finished in third place.

Fletcher was clearly beaten down from the rough, albeit shortened campaign cycle.  In the immediate aftermath, he made it clear that he was stepping away from politics altogether, eager to spend more time with his family.  But after some time away, what kind of role will he be willing to play in the runoff in support of Alvarez?  He openly lamented that he hadn’t had more time to establish his Democratic bona fides, having run for mayor less than a year after switching parties.  If he thinks there’s even a chance he might run for office again, he would be wise to actively work to elect Alvarez.  It would go a long way toward rallying the Democratic base behind him in the long term.

Some other obstacles in Alvarez’ path to the mayor’s office:  As Wendy Fry pointed out, negative campaigning works, so we’re likely to see a lot more of it.  The question is, what will be the nature of the attacks, and where will they come from?  The Lincoln Club and GOP establishment openly supported David Alvarez in the primary, believing him to be the weaker candidate in a runoff against Faulconer.  And while most of the negative campaigning in the primary was aimed at Fletcher, relatively little was directed at Alvarez.

The Lincoln Club will now turn its ire on Alvarez, but as the panel on Sunday pointed out, what is there really to attack?  His age, for one (he’s only 33 years old), and his perceived lack of experience.  Alvarez has been on the City Council for three years, compared with Faulconer’s seven.  Those lines would likely have only marginal success at best, though.

It also seems likely that race will factor into the negative attacks in some form.  Fear the little brown people, especially those from Barrio Logan who are angling to destroy San Diego’s maritime economy and drive the Navy out of town, according to Faulconer’s backers.  And since negative advertising is so effective, who else besides the Lincoln Club will be doing Faulconer’s dirty work?  And will Faulconer be able to keep his hands clean amidst the smear tactics that will be deployed on his behalf?  And just how dirty will the Faulconer surrogates get?

Speaking of Barrio Logan, what effect with the referendum to overturn the City Council approval of the BL Community Plan have on the election?  Alvarez is a strong supporter of the community plan as it stands, Faulconer is absolutely opposed, having actively campaigned on behalf of the referendum.  The conflict has turned into one pitting the “little people,” the residents of Barrio Logan with limited resources, against the big corporate interests who have virtually unlimited resources.  Will Alvarez be able to turn this issue into an advantage for him?

And since much of Alvarez’ backing came from organized labor, will the Labor Council be able to muster up the funds to continue their support?  One member of the audience insisted that labor was tapped out—they marshaled all of their resources in the primary and will only have a limited ability to contribute in the runoff.  We’ve heard that before, responded Fry, and yet they always seem to come up with more money when it counts.  Will that hold true this time around?

The biggest obstacle in Alvarez’ path to the mayor’s office, however, is the issue of a severely depressed turnout.  For some reason—as is typical of off year and special elections—Democrats simply do not turn out to vote.  In the November, 2012 general election, the San Diego Registrar of Voters reported that 76% of registered voters in San Diego cast a ballot.  Buoyed by the presence of Barack Obama on the election ballot, the Democratic mayoral candidate won.

Last week, that number dropped to 30%, with the results skewed heavily in favor of the Republican candidate, despite the massive registration advantage for Democrats.  In order to win in February, Alvarez not only needs to convince Fletcher voters to jump aboard, he will also need to turn out voters to the polls.  Failure to improve on that 30% figure will spell certain defeat.

The final, overriding question is this:  Will San Diego voters turn out in support of a more progressive, Democratic agenda like they did in 2012?  Can that be turned into a motivating factor in Alvarez’ favor?  Or are voters satisfied with a return to “business as usual” at City Hall, with the corporate, big moneyed interests dictating city policy?

Stay tuned.  The San Diego mayoral race is about to get interesting…..as if it hasn’t been already.

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Andy Cohen

Andy spent 15 years working in the highest levels of the San Diego professional sports world, including both the Padres and the Chargers. He began his foray into writing while a volunteer for Francine Busby's 2010 Congressional campaign, eventually becoming a contributor to the now defunct SDNN. He has reported on local and national politics for both the OB Rag and the San Diego Free Press. When not reporting news and events, he offers political and policy commentary from a liberal perspective, occasionally turning back to his sports roots. While he does not hide his more liberal political bent, Andy always strives for fairness in the telling of a story.
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avatar bob dorn November 27, 2013 at 9:34 am

Hey, Andy, howcum at the end of each of these contributions to our understanding the personal bio says about Andy Cohen, “he does not hide his more liberal political bent?” I think you’re doing a good job of it.

avatar John P. Falchi November 27, 2013 at 10:05 pm

Andy-
That was a good sum up of the recent primary campaign and the task ahead for the candidates. I, recently, heard David Alvarez quoted as saying that the primary was the more difficult of the campaigns for him because he saw the fall election as pitting two candidates who were clearly different against each other. Of course the right-wing PR machine will do their best to cloud that picture.
Most of the negative attacks in the primary were leveled against Nathan Fletcher, whereas in the upcoming general election the whole arsenal, of which the Lincoln Club is the epitomy, will be trained on David Alvarez and how fast and well he responds to them will be very important. If they haven’t already, the Alvarez team ought to be researching the discrepancies between Faulconer’s previous, more right-wing positions on many issues, and his recent attempts to appear more moderate. David is going to have to forcefully take the initiative in the little time before the voting starts in Mid-January, to take the campaign to Faulconer and put him on the defensive, without getting too nasty about it. He is going to have to work on his presentation skills to convince people that he could handle the Mayor’s job more effectively, and more in their interest, to get those who are up for grabs to vote for him. If I were him, I would sit down with both Mike Aguirre and Nathan Fletcher to convince them to actively campaign for him in the coming weeks.
It is a given that his team needs to really work at getting out the vote in those areas of his greatest potential, where the percentage of registered voters had a low turnout. Simultaneously he should go to groups like the League of Women Voters, PDA, DFA , Common Cause, etc. to get before the north of 8 voters to convince them to vote for him. He is a hard worker, and he has his work cut out for him in the weeks ahead with all of their holiday distractions.

avatar Dittzblonde December 1, 2013 at 8:51 am

Andy
Thank you so much for this excellent summary of our Dem club’s panel discussion. I’ve been busy catching up and did not know about this article until a member told me. Glad you enjoyed the experience. Patrick and John are both extremely focused smart guys. And Patrick is the stay at home Dad of a teething toddler! Again, thanks!
Susan Peinado, president
Pt Loma Dems

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