The Race for Mayor a Dead Heat


David Alvarez surges in the polls to within 1% of the lead.

New Poll has Alvarez at 46% only 1% behind Faulconer

By Brent E. Beltrán

[Updated with a quote by Alvarez campaign spokesman, Stephen P. Heverly.]

The race for mayor has gotten a lot closer as a new 10 News/San Diego Union Tribune poll has big business friendly Republican candidate, and maritime industry minion, Kevin Faulconer at 47% with surging District 8 councilman David Alvarez coming in at 46% with 7% undecided.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, has a margin of error of +/- 4.4% making this race a statistical dead heat. See full poll data here.

The question that the pollsters asked was: If the runoff election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? Kevin Faulconer? Or David Alvarez?

Though polls funded by 10 News and the SDUT have historically been inaccurate in favor of Republicans (see last year’s mayor’s race when they had Carl DeMaio up by 5% over Bob Filner) it is very interesting to see a poll by them that actually shows positive numbers for the Democratic candidate.

A new SurveyUSA poll has the mayoral race statistically even.

A new SurveyUSA poll has the mayoral race statistically even.

With two months to go in the campaign this portends well for the Democratic challenger who recently came in second after beating out former Republican turned independent turned Democratic candidate Nathan Fletcher in a race to face Faulconer.

Alvarez campaign spokesman Stephen P. Heverly says, “We know this is just one snapshot of the race, but it certainly mirrors what we are hearing from voters we meet at the door. The momentum we saw going into the primary in November is clearly growing. Councilman Alvarez’s sound leadership and vision on jobs and neighborhood infrastructure is resonating with San Diegans.”

Groups like The Lincoln Club, the so-called San Diegans to Protect Jobs & the Economy (which uses the same address as The Lincoln Club), and the local Republican Party, headed by the abrasive Tony Krvaric, begged for a runoff with Alvarez. They put out tens of thousands of dollars worth of attack ads and mailers opposing Fletcher to get their wish for a runoff with Alvarez.

And it’s biting them in their hindquarters!

Local Republican power brokers underestimated the kid from the barrio and now they are going to have to ramp up their dirty tricks campaign to have any shot at beating him. It’s going to get foul as the Republicans will use every opportunity possible to attack Alvarez and what he stands for.

With the election scheduled for February 11, 2014 the Republican machine is preparing for perhaps the ugliest campaign San Diego has ever seen. They are all in on Faulconer and will resort to anything, including blatant lies and hatemongering, to get him elected.

A source inside the Alvarez campaign says they’re, “applying our thick skin and should be ready for some heavy hitting” by Faulconer’s surrogates. Let’s hope so as the little campaign that could is going to need some thick skin to ward off the oncoming Republican assault.


Brent E. Beltrán

Brent E. Beltrán is a third generation pocho and second generation San Diegan that lives next door to Chicano Park in Barrio Logan. He's the former publisher of Calaca Press, is married to his dreaming heart watcher and is the proud father of a preschool Dino-saur. He writes the somewhat irregular column Desde la Logan, is a member of the SDFP Editorial Board and is on the Barrio Logan Planning Group. He can be contacted via email at and through his Twitter account @DesdeLaLogan.

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  1. avatarLucas O'Connor says

    Not sure about this one specifically, but San Diego polling pretty consistently does not include Spanish-only households. Not likely a huge swing, especially in a low-turnout special, but in a close race it can sure matter.

    • avatarBrent E. Beltrán says

      If Spanish households are not polled then this is even better news for the Alvarez campaign since we can probably safely assume the vast majority will vote for him.

  2. avatarnancy says

    Those of us who want to see David Alvarez in the mayor’s seat have to help out in his campaign.
    I’m the community coordinator for the OB/PtLoma/Midway area and don’t want to have Kevin Faulconer as my mayor. I’m committed to getting volunteers to make phone calls and/or walk in their precinct and anywhere else to get out the message about this important election. The 1% + of voters needed for David to win can be obtained with the potential voters being encouraged to vote for him.
    Go to (619-402-1330) or to 858-277-3367) if you want to participate; also tell them to let “Nancy from OB/PtL know you’ve volunteered; you’ll be given a script/training; calling and/or walking will not start until the first week in Jan., so you can enjoy the holiday season and be geared up to do what we can to have a progressive mayor for San Diego.
    Here’s to a wonderful holiday season and to celebrating after the February election that David Alvarez is our next mayor.

  3. avatar says

    Hope to heaven that Alvarez is elected. It will change the whole complexion of San Diego including the cross border cooperation that Filner envisioned. Perhaps there will be a prayer for the San Diego Climate Action Plan (currently in draft form) to combat global warming and a San Diego Public Bank which would solve a lot of the pension and revenue problems while reducing taxes.