Since Primary election eve, when the results were coming in, San Diego conservatives have been celebrating their perceived “victories”. Me thinks they are celebrating way too early, as the results are not as favorable to the GOP and their extremist friends as they think it was. Check this out.
First, the California Primary was one of the lowest voter turn-outs in history – 36% – if not the lowest. Low turn-outs tend to favor conservatives, whereas large turn-0uts favor Democrats and liberals. And Democrats did stay away from the polls, as there was no big-ticket item on the ballot. Sure, Barack Obama was on it but he was a shoe-in. And Senator Dianne Feinstein was on it as well, but she didn’t have any serious challengers. Yes, there were two state-wide measures – and one of them – Prop 28 – which does aid democracy just a tad -passed handily – but how can anyone get excited about a tax on tobacco.
Lack of State-Wide Reason for Democrats to Vote
So, there was nothing state-wide driving Democrats to the polls. This did help Republicans and conservatives – but it clearly is not over yet. In November, Democrats are expected – as they always do – to vote in heavier numbers in a presidential contest that is contentious. This will greatly boost every Democrat in every race up and down the state. So, conservatives are simply celebrating too early.
Carl DeMaio and his cronies and supporters have certainly been hooting it up. Yes, Prop B did pass – but yes, it probably will end up in court. And when voters find out how badly Prop A does for the City, there will probably be a backlash against its supporters. Not good news for the GOP.
Future Mayor and City Council Democratic
Yet, DeMaio and his friends all spent a lot of money whereas everyone knows Bob Filner hardly spent anything and not even mustering a TV ad. But guess what? Filner – despite all Carl’s funds – got within two percentage points of DeMaio. Very close.
And it cannot be assumed – by any measure – that Fletcher and Dumanis’ supporters will be backing DeMaio. Friends of Fletcher will long remember the antagonism between these two younger, white guys. And Dumanis was able to garner the early support of big-name Democrats, who quiet likely will return to the fold come November.
So, for example, if two-thirds of Fletcher voters switch to Filner, and a conservative estimate of one-third of Bonnie’s people going for Bob, Filner could very well be the first Democratic mayor in twenty years for San Diego.
If Filner wins in November, what kind of City Council will he be facing?
All political observers can agree that right now, the make-up of the San Diego Council is 4 to 4 (Dems: Young, Gloria, Emerald and Alvarez versus Reps: Faulconer, Lorie Zapf, new guy Mark Kersey, and the victor Scott Sherman) . The Sheri Lightner race with Republican Ray Ellis will be a deciding factor for the balance on the Council. Lightner received 42% to Ellis’ 46%, but Democrat Bryan Pease got 7%, which likely will go to Sheri. Lightner could very well take it in five months.
With Filner in the mayor’s seat, you would then have a five to four Democratic majority on the San Diego City Council. Not bad for the “losing” side. This could happen in November, and clearly the conservatives are blowing their horns too soon.
How did the Democrats and the Labor Council do in the other races around the County?
Obviously, Darrel Issa and Duncan Hunter, Jr. will be returning to Congress. The Dem-backed Jerry Tetalman only received half of what Issa got (31%). Anti-nuke activist Dick Eiden only got 7% of the vote in that 49th District.
The Democrats could hardly push anyone to go up against Hunter in the 50th District, but unknown David Secor garnered 17%, and the other Dem in the race got 8%. Tea Party activist challenger Terri Linnell received only 3%.
Yet Democrat Juan Vargas swept into the run-off in the 51st District with a massive 46%, sweeping aside Dem challenger Denise Ducheny, and who will likely vanquish Michael Cummins in the Fall.
And then there’s the 52nd District where Scott Peters and Lori Saldana are still trying to figure out who got the most. Whoever it is will be a very strong challenger to Brian Bilbray.
In the 53rd – Susan Davis – a Democrat of course, over-powered extremist and white-supremacist Nick Popaditch with her 57%.
Marty Block, a Dem, will go up against George Plescia for the State Senate District 39, and with fellow Democrat Patrick Marsh’s 10% of the vote, Block will probably keep his seat.
The left did not do well in both the 71st or 75th Assembly Districts – as Dem favorites Patrick Hurley and Matthew Herold both remained in the low thirties in percentages. But in the 76th, unknown Rocky Chavez with 39% will go up against Sherry Hodges. Mainstream Brian Maienschein will going up against a lesser-known Ruben Hernandez.
Toni Atkins walked away with her 60% of the vote. And in the 79th District, there was a four-way contest between four Democrats. It appears that Dr. Shirley Weber bested her D opponents and will go forward to beat Republican Mary England in November. Ben Hueso – another Democratic Party candidate in the 80th – walked away also with his seat with 60%.
This is all not too shabby for a party that supposedly was smashed in Tuesday’s polling.
The Superior Court races were something else, all together. David Berry beat out Terrie Roberts (Roberts had some questionable elements in her record), and extremist Jim Miller will be going up against liberal Robert Amador, and Miller is likely to lose. Then there’s birther Gary Kreep so close to GOP centrist Garland Peed that we don’t know the results.
In terms of the education run-offs, at the San Diego Unified School Board, we have Richard Barrera, unopposed; we have Dem-backed John Lee Evans going up against Mark Powell, and we have Dem Marne Foster winning outright for District E.
On the County Board, there’s our fave Gregg Robinson (also a blogger for us) getting in second place for a show-down with dinosaur John Witt. We have labor-backed Lyn Nelon winning a run-off with Rindone, and then there’s labor-backed Mark Anderson winning it on the first ballot. At the Community College board, labor-supported Bernie Rhinerson was the top vote getter and will be in the November run-off with Scott Hasson.
All in all, the conservatives and Republicans in this City and County are celebrating prematurely as the Primary results did not favor them as much as they would like to believe – especially with the looming November election just five months away.
Carl, put the champagne away, buddy. It’s not over yet.