From LGBT Weekly / October 21, 2012
The San Diego U-T published a poll suggesting that Carl DeMaio is ahead in the mayoral race by ten points. Shocking. You mean Doug Manchester and the U-T have conducted a poll that supports his candidate, DeMaio? No other poll has shown DeMaio in the lead. So I guess the cheese stands alone, as the old nursery rhyme goes. We in the LGBT community know that the U-T coverage of the mayor’s race has been cheesy at best.
Let’s analyze the actual U-T poll. First the margin of error is +/- 4%. That means that you can subtract 4% from DeMaio and add 4% to Filner. That would mean DeMaio could be as low as 42% and Filner as high as 40%. Hmm, that would make it a 2% lead for DeMaio. Of course, there are more issues with the headline and the poll.
The U-T does reveal the party affiliation of the 614 people they polled; 42% were Democrats, 31% were Republican and 27% were independent or other. The underlying registration of San Diego is 40% Democrat, 28% Republican and 27% Independent or other. That means that Republicans were over sampled by 11% and Democrats were over sampled by 5%, simply the survey clearly favors Republicans. Shocking that DeMaio is in the lead.
Is the company that performed the poll inept? The Glover Park Group is a reputable firm but it is not known for its polling. They describe themselves as a strategic communications firm that delivers research-driven, targeted campaigns that draw attention, shape opinions and inspire action. Hmm, is the Glover Park Group trying to inspire voters to cast their ballots for Manchester’s choice DeMaio? Of course, USD Center for Education Policy and Law is also headed by two conservative Republicans and they were co-sponsors of the poll.
Admittedly, the U-T acknowledges that the 18% of undecided voters are leaning toward Obama. That means that it is likely these voters will break toward Filner. Over 58% of the undecided voters are voting for President Obama, 20% for Romney and 22% are undecided in the presidential race.
The net of all this is simply that Doug Manchester and the U-T are trying to build a narrative that DeMaio is in the lead. Okay. Thanks Doug, Filner supporters are more motivated than ever. I am sure Filner will use your data to ensure that his supporters vote early and often. In the end, the U-T will be totally discredited. Already those who are progressive in our community have stopped paying any attention to the U-T editorial pages. Is Manchester trying to drive the U-T out of business to develop the land its offices sit upon? This questionable poll definitely moves Manchester closer to that goal.