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UPDATED: Maienschein Loses Equality Endorsement – Democrats See Gains in 2018 San Diego Assembly Races

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Sunday Gover’s campaign in the 77th assembly District is drawing statewide attention.

Democrats controlled three of the seven Assembly seats in the county going into 2018, and that’s about to change. The voter registration advantage Republicans have traditionally held in two suburban North County districts has dissipated.

Assemblyman Rocky Chavez opted not to run for re-election and fell short in an attempt to grab a spot on the fall ballot race for Rep. Darrell Issa’s seat. His 76th district ended up putting two Democrats on the November ballot, a result that would have been unthinkable just a few years back.

Over in the 77th Assembly District, Democrats have taken the lead in voter registration, and party leaders now see newcomer Sunday Gover’s campaign as one of their best opportunities in the state.  

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UPDATE, via Politico: Equality California, the nation’s largest statewide LGBTQ civil rights organization, announced Thursday that the organization has withdrawn its endorsement of state Assemblymember Brian Maienschein in his reelection battle against challenger Sunday Gover “after the Assemblymember repeatedly failed to support AB 2119 (Gloria – foster youth), legislation that will ensure LGBTQ youth in foster care have access to gender-affirming, life-saving health care.” Equality California had previously issued a dual endorsement of Maienschein and Gover.

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It’s incorrect to assume these changes in partisan outlook are tied to the demographic shifts often associated with Democratic Party gains.

From the Union-Tribune:

It’s unclear why the districts have shifted. Campaigns suggested that it’s because they have become younger and more diverse, two factors that tend to favor Democrats. Census data, however, show that both the median age and percentage of the population 65 and over has actually increased and, in one of the districts, the percentage of white residents has grown as well.

Both major parties have added members in the past two years, but Democrats increased their ranks faster. Between the 76th and 77th districts, for every net increase of one Republican registered in the past two years, there were about five Democrats added and about three independent.

“If you are an educated affluent suburban voter, you don’t want anything to do with Donald Trump, not just on the policies, but how he talks and treats people,” said Dan Rottenstreich, a Democratic campaign consultant, by phone.

The 78th (Gloria), 79th(Weber), and 80th (Gonzalez-Fletcher) Assembly district contests are all-but-certain to be blowouts for their Democratic officeholders, leaving incumbents in the 71st and 75th as the last vestiges of Republican power. And I’m not sure they should count their chickens in those districts, either.

Today, I’ll present a quick rundown of Assembly races in San Diego County. The district numbers have links embedded in them with more data about the location and composition of the area. I opted to go with “Sample Endorsements” because most of the Democratic candidates had such long lists as opposed to most of the GOP candidates. 

District 71

Randy Voepel – Republican Incumbent
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: National Rifle Association, Peace Officers Research Association of California, San Diego Deputy Sheriffs, San Diego Republican Party

Voepel’s claim to fame in 2016 (when he ran unopposed) was the Los Angeles Times quoting him saying climate change is a good thing that hurts ‘enemies on the equator.’

This time around, his ballot statement makes it clear he’s against taxes, regulations, cap and trade, and immigrants.

James Elia – Democrat
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements:  United Domestic Workers of America, United Steel Workers, California Democratic Party, Our Revolution, San Diego Progressive Democratic Club, San Diego Democratic Party

Chaldean community activist Elia is running as a “corporate-free” candidate.  His top 3 priorities are public banking, Medicare for all, and investing in education and apprenticeship programs to rebuild infrastructure. He’s been running a vigorous campaign, canvassing with other regional candidates and proudly touting his past support for Senator Bernie Sanders  

The corporate establishment politicians that have served east county over the last 30 years have drastically taken advantage of the public and have sold you out to developers, the insurance industry, and the banking industry. Where have our east county and riverside elected officials been when people were getting forclosed on? Where are they now during a state emergency rent crisis? They are out accepting corporate dollars ignoring your concerns.

District 75

Marie Waldron – Incumbent Republican
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: California Professional Firefighters,  California Republican Assembly, National Rifle Association, Peace Officers Research Association of California, San Diego Republican Party.

Anybody here? The former Escondido city councilmember has been criticized for not holding town meetings and not being accessible to the community. She’s at the bottom of her legislative class when it comes to environmental protections and dearly beloved by the gun lobby.

Alan Geraci -Democrat

Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements  San Diego Democratic Party, California Teachers Association, SEIU California, Democratic Woman’s Club of San Diego County, Temecula Valley Democrats

Geraci’s candidacy is influenced by his experiences with the Save Our Escondido Library coalition, fighting privatization of the Escondido Public Library. Says his top 3 priorities are Healthcare for all Californians, Public Schools fully funded from K-degree, and Renewable Energy reforms in place by 2030.

District 76

Incumbent Republican Rocky Chavez is retiring after a failed campaign for the 49th Congressional District.

Tasha Boerner Horvath – Democrat
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements – California Labor Federation, California National Organization for Women, North County Labor Alliance, Planned Parenthood Action Fund of the Pacific Southwest, Run Women Run, SEIU State Council & Local 221.

Encinitas City Councilmember Hovath jumped into the race for this seat after two years after winning her first election. An impressive grassroots effort in 2016 and a history of community involvement made her the candidate of choice for many party regulars. Her campaign priorities include fully funding public schools, safe neighborhoods, protecting the environment, and reducing homelessness.

Elizabeth Warren – Democrat
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: MoveOn.org, MLK Democratic Club, Progressive Democrats of North San Diego County, Barrio Carlsbad Community Advocates, DSA- San Diego

She’s not THE Elizabeth Warren but passes easily for a San Diego version. Her campaign priorities include guaranteed healthcare for all, addressing California’s housing emergency, and increasing investment in K-12 public schools. Warren’s activism within the Bernie wing of the Democratic Party and easy-to-remember name are her strengths. It remains to be seen if these assets will be enough to overcome her opponent’s large financial advantage.  

District 77 

This traditionally Republican District is now majority Democratic

Brian Maienschein – Incumbent Republican
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: Republican Party of San Diego County, Equality California (Endorsed both candidates), Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Former San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders.

Maienschein’s years on San Diego City Council defined him as one of a vanishing breed of moderate Republicans. Word is that some Democrats have quietly arranged campaign donations (boo!) for Maienschein because they see him as somebody they can work with. His campaign priorities include protecting public safety, building a strong economy, and improving public education.

UPDATE, via Politico:

Equality California, the nation’s largest statewide LGBTQ civil rights organization, announced Thursday that the organization has withdrawn its endorsement of state Assemblymember Brian Maienschein in his reelection battle against challenger Sunday Gover “after the Assemblymember repeatedly failed to support AB 2119 (Gloria – foster youth), legislation that will ensure LGBTQ youth in foster care have access to gender-affirming, life-saving health care.” Equality California had previously issued a dual endorsement of Maienschein and Gover.

Sunday Gover – Democrat
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements – California Democratic Party, EMILY’s List, Planned Parenthood Action Fund of the Pacific Southwest, MoveOn.org, Equality California (Endorsed both candidates), Sierra Club,

Gover may be a newcomer to electoral politics, but she’s atop a smartly run campaign. Domestic politics have rendered the 77th flippable. She’s getting the full treatment from the Democratic Party: big-name politicos walking the district with her and –reportedly– enough cash to run a respectable race. Campaign priories include making college affordable, improving transportation, expanding health care coverage and.  making it easier to build affordable housing.

District 78

Todd Gloria – Incumbent Democrat
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: California Democratic Party, San Diego and Imperial Counties Labor Council, San Diego County Democrats for Equality, San Diego County Democrats for Environmental Action, Sierra Club California.

Gloria’s experience on the San Diego City Council, his stint as interim mayor, and his understanding of activism outside the electoral sphere have made him an effective legislator. He picks his battles carefully in terms of authoring legislation and continues to crusade for environmental policy changes outside of his role in Sacramento.

The token opposition to his candidacy in the general election has freed to him to campaign for other local candidates. The 78th is a deep blue district and Gloria’s high profile means he will be re-elected by a wide margin.

Maggie Campbell -Republican
Website | Facebook | Twitter 
Sample Endorsements  California Republican Party, Republican Women’s Alliance, California Republican TaxPayers Association, Carl DeMaio & The DeMaio Report. The San Diego GOP did not endorse her.

She’s running for office because she’s ‘not a politician.’ Well, duh. That’s a good call when considering the makeup of the district. Campbell says 30 years of experience in business, banking and the evangelical ministry make her a good choice for a strong voice in the state capitol.

She ran for Los Angeles city council and California State Assembly in 2008 and 2010. Her campaign seems to be based on the success of the GOP’s Prop 6 effort to rile people up over the “gas tax.” It doesn’t look like it’s working.

District 79

Shirley Weber – Incumbent Democrat
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: California Nurses Association, Equality California, Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) California, United Domestic Workers of America, San Diego Democratic Party

Weber may be a pain in the ass to some traditional Democratic institutional allies but is hugely popular in her district. Her legislative priorities continue to be strengthening civil rights and commonsense economic policies, improving education, and protecting persons with disabilities and voting rights. She’s also been at the forefront of efforts to reform the criminal justice system.

Weber’s district is deep blue. She’s revered as a social justice warrior, an academic, and a force within the Black community. The GOP candidate is little more than a placeholder, with a website resembling a 1990’s conspiracy locale.

John Moore – Republican
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: California Republican Assembly, Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, US Gun Club, East County Tea Party

Another non-professional politician who failed to get the local party’s endorsement. Carl DeMaio likes him, so there’s that. The retired businessman says he is against every bill Shirley Weber ever voted for in the state assembly. Lower taxes and less regulation for businesses are his cure for what ails us. He has no social media presence.

District 80

Lorena Gonzalez-Fletcher – Incumbent
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: California (& San Diego) Democratic Party, California Labor Federation, California Teachers Association, Equality California, United Farm Workers of America, San Diego County Young Democrats

I hope residents of the 80th enjoy her while they’ve got her. It would be easy for her to sit back, collect cash. and cruise to re-election given the makeup of the district and the nominal opposition the GOP puts up against her. Instead, Gonzalez-Fletcher is a progressive politician willing to go toe-to-toe with anybody for good causes, with an impressive list of legislative accomplishments (and a few painful vetoes from Gov. Brown). Her unabashed ambition has ruffled some feathers along the way but hasn’t stopped her from rising through the Democratic ranks.

Lincoln Pickard
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Sample Endorsements: California Republican Assembly, Carl DeMaio

An ultraconservative who wants to make California Great Again. Failed to get the endorsement of the local GOP. Is self-funding, which means no contributions have been reported. Kept his campaign website from 2016 site up to save money.

Other articles in this series:

The San Diego Free Press Progressive Voter Guide, to be published in early October will include these and many other candidates. To see all our coverage for the 2018 elections, go here.

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Doug Porter

Doug Porter

Doug Porter was active in the early days of the alternative press in San Diego, contributing to the OB Liberator, the print version of the OB Rag, the San Diego Door, and the San Diego Street Journal. He went on to have a 35-year career in the Hospitality business and decided to go back into raising hell when he retired. He won numerous awards for his columns from the Society of Professional Journalists in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. Doug is a cancer survivor (sans vocal chords) and lives in North Park.

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