By Doug Porter
A couple of weeks back, Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump told a largely white audience in Michigan that he’d win 95% of the black vote during his 2020 re-election campaign.
He’s got his work cut out for him. Public Policy Polling released a preview of a new poll on “The Rachel Maddow Show” Monday night showing Donald Trump’s favorability rating among African-American voters at zero percent. 97% of those polled knew for sure they didn’t care for him. 3% were undecided. And there’s the matter of winning the 2016 election.
Public Policy Polling skews liberal, so it’s best to take this result with a grain of salt. But this isn’t the first survey showing Trump doing extremely poorly with black voters.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll back in July found similar results with African Americans in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In Ohio, where the two candidates are tied, 11 percent of the 848 registered voters in the poll were African American, and they broke for Clinton, 88 percent to 0 percent.
And in Pennsylvania, where Clinton was ahead by nine points, 10 percent of the 829 voters are African American, and they went for Clinton, 91 percent to 0 percent.
According to the nonpartisan Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, Republican presidential candidates received 4 percent and 6 percent of the black vote in the 2008 and 2012 elections. Earlier elections (1996, 2000 & 2004) showed black support at 8 to 12 percent.
Despite his claim to be reaching out to black voters, the evidence suggests Trump is really just using these statements to re-enforce the racist dog whistles that have been hallmarks of his campaign.
Trump is getting criticism for repeatedly using simplistic and condescending rhetoric when discussing the experiences of African-Americans.
From Politico:
“You’re living in poverty, your schools are no good, you have no jobs. Fifty-eight percent of your youth is unemployed. What the hell do you have to lose?” Speaking before another largely-white audience in a town whose population is 93 percent white, Trump said, “And at the end of four years, I guarantee you that I will get over 95 percent of the African-American vote. I promise you. Because I will produce.”
“No group in America has been more harmed by Hillary Clinton’s policies than African-Americans. No group. No group,” he said. “If Hillary Clinton’s goal was to inflict pain on the African-American community, she could not have done a better job. It’s a disgrace. Tonight, I’m asking for the vote of every single African-American citizen in this country who wants to see a better future.”
As usual, Trump’s facts were drawn from an alternative universe. In the real world, a majority (73%) of African Americans don’t live in poverty. (Yes, the poverty rate for people of color is higher.)
Trump 58% youth unemployment claim has been fact checked (four Pinocchios) and debunked repeatedly.
And he ignores the very real aspirations of black Americans. By both race and gender there is a higher percentage of black women (9.7 percent) enrolled in college than any other group including Asian women (8.7 percent), white women (7.1 percent) and white men (6.1 percent), according to the 2011 U.S. Census Bureau.
In our universe, a historical connection with discriminatory housing practices, calling for the death penalty of accused black youth (who were exonerated), leading the movement accusing the first African-American president of using a forged birth certificate, and associating with white supremacists is likely to make a presidential candidate unpopular with black voters.
Trump’s likely to discover that the state of Denial has no electoral votes.
This past weekend Trump caused another controversy when he attempted to capitalize on the death of Chicago Bulls player Dwyane Wade’s cousin, who was shot while walking with her infant child in Chicago.
Dwyane Wade’s cousin was just shot and killed walking her baby in Chicago. Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 27, 2016
One of his campaign staff did apparently get to the candidate, who managed to squeeze out condolences to the victims a few hours later.
And now, in response to criticism about sending messages to black voters while speaking to nearly all-white crowds, The Donald is headed back to Michigan.
From Bloomberg:
Donald Trump is planning to visit Detroit next weekend to make his first appearance before a predominantly African-American audience as his campaign makes a bid for support from black voters.
Trump will visit the Great Faith Ministries on Saturday in Detroit, a predominantly black church located in the heart of the city, said Pastor Mark Burns, a Trump supporter who arranged a meeting between the Republican presidential nominee and the church’s leader, Bishop Wayne T. Jackson.
Trump will “give an address to outline policies that will impact minorities and the disenfranchised in our country,” Burns, who is black, said in a statement. “I see, as I have seen, the heart and compassion Mr. Trump has for all Americans, which includes minority communities whose votes have been for granted for far too long.”
When your favorability is at zero, there’s nowhere to go but up.
More Bad News for Darrell Issa
Doug Applegate – Courtesy Applegate for Congress
A survey of 599 voters in the 49th Congressional District shows Rep. Darrell Issa in a statistical dead heat with Democratic challenger Ret. Col. Doug Applegate.
The polling by Strategies 360 was paid for by the Applegate campaign. Here’s a snip from their press release trumpeting the news:
The poll shows Donald Trump continues to drag down Issa, a vocal supporter of the toxic Republican presidential candidate. Hillary Clinton leads Trump by five points, 46-41 percent, and Trump’s favorability-unfavorability rating among Independents is a striking 21-75 percent. Voters registered No Party Preference (NPP) favor Applegate 51-33 percent.
Despite being outspent 15-to-1, Applegate performed better against Issa in the June primary than any previous challenger in Issa’s 15-year congressional career. A poll released shortly after also showed the two tied.
And there’s this, From Politico’s California Playbook:
— IS THE BIG SHIFT COMING IN KEY CA-49 DISTRICT? Veteran GOP strategist Kurt Bardella, a former Issa spokesman, tells POLITICO: – “The real barometer that matters for the long-term is if Issa can win and stay above 55%. IF he doesn’t, he could face a much more challenging opponent in 2018 that has real resources. At which point, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he opted to retire vs spending 2 years campaigning in a district that demographically is shifting.”
I say why wait for 2018? The Applegate campaign can use your help today.
Farmer Worker Overtime Bill: It Ain’t Over ’till It’s Over
AB 1066, a measure phasing in overtime pay for farm workers, made it through the legislature on Monday. Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez (D-80), whose father toiled in the fields of California, was the driving force behind the legislation, bringing it back to life after most observers assumed it was dead.
The question now is: Will Gov Brown sign the bill?
The Sacramento Bee isn’t sure:
Brown has not said how he will act on the measure, and his record on labor and farmworker issues is mixed. He signed the landmark Agricultural Labor Relations Act when he was governor before, from 1975 to 1983, and has frequently mentioned his personal relationship with Cesar Chavez.
But Brown has often sided with industry interests since returning to office, at times infuriating farmworker advocates. In 2011, the UFW protested Brown when he vetoed a bill that would have made it easier to unionize farmworkers, though Brown later signed a compromise bill.
He disappointed the UFW again when he vetoed legislation that would have made it harder for farmers to stall new farmworker contracts.
Editorial Note: My ‘sneak peak’ column on California ballot propositions originally planned for today has been delayed, in part by technical difficulties with the Secretary of State’s website. And because it’s just taking longer than I thought it would. The analysis will appear in the next few days.
On This Day: 1834 – Delegates from several East Coast cities met in convention to form the National Trades’ Union, uniting craft unions to oppose “the most unequal and unjustifiable distribution of the wealth of society in the hands of a few individuals.” The union faded after a few years. 1905 – Ty Cobb made his major league batting debut with the Detroit Tigers. 1965 – Thurgood Marshall was confirmed by the Senate as a Supreme Court justice. Marshall was the first black justice.
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Doug Porter
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Sorry Trumpettes. We have a very firm policy against comments in ALL CAPS. Ask your grandchildren why, if they are speaking to you.
Donald Trump says he’s going to do this. He’s going to do that. It’s amazing how gullible his supporters are. I’m surprised he hasn’t sold them the Brooklyn bridge by now. More candidates for Trump U? Saying he’s going to make America great again does not make it so. It’s just bullshit.