By Gordon Clanton / Del Mar Times
Politics, like rust, never sleeps. Politics is a year-around affair, especially in San Diego. Because of the resignation of Mayor Bob Filner, city voters will go to the polls in a special election November 19. Mail ballots will go out this week – and perhaps two-thirds of the voting will be by mail.
Based on recent polling, most observers expect a runoff between newly Democratic former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher (32 percent) and Republican Councilman Kevin Faulconer (28 percent). Although the Democratic Party endorsed Councilman David Alvarez (20 percent), many influential Dems are assuming that Fletcher will be their candidate in the runoff and some are openly supporting Fletcher in the first round.
The mayoral race is nominally non-partisan, but everyone knows both major parties will bring major resources to the contest. The candidates who move on to the expected runoff will be the two top vote-getters, regardless of party.
Is there a plausible path to a two-Democrat runoff? Only if two conditions are met.
(1) Former City Attorney Mike Aguirre (8 percent) must drop out and throw his support to Alvarez – as Bruce Coons has done. With the vote that might have gone to Aguirre, Alvarez has a chance of edging into the second spot and pushing Faulconer out of the runoff.
Even if Fletcher is the eventual winner, he would be pulled to the left by a contest with Alvarez, as he would be pulled to the right in a runoff with Faulconer.
(2) The Democrats will need to raise voter turnout above the historically low levels of most special municipal elections. They might do this by pointing out that this special election is special. It will determine whether we salvage some parts of the progressive vision that brought Bob Filner to power or let the city slide back under the control of downtown special interests and the Republican establishment. In the end, we may have to settle for Fletcher – but maybe not.
With a voter registration edge of 40 to 27 percent, the Democrats have a shot at taking Faulconer out in the primary – but only if Aguirre drops out.
Friends tell me, “Mike will never drop out.”
But perhaps he will, if enough Dems tell him he should: “Mike, you cannot win the second spot. You can only be a spoiler who prevents Alvarez from finishing ahead of Faulconer. Please step aside for the good of the party.”
Reposted with permission from the author. Gordon Clanton teaches Sociology at San Diego State University. He welcomes comments at gclanton@mail.sdsu.edu.
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I have always admired mr. Aguirre’ for his strong progressive stands on the issues. However, he continues to sabotage his own chances with his hot temper. Dropping out and endorsing mr. Alvarez would be a positive step, something big that Aguirre could do for the progressive causes he sincerely cares about.
Almost every day mailers from The Lincoln Club, the Republicans’ flamethrowers, are in mailboxes attacking Fletcher Nathan, the conservative Republican now riding a donkey, and it’s confusing. Won’t this attack on Fletcher Nathan divide the conservative vote between Fletcher Nathan and the ordinary conservative, Faulconer? And wouldn’t this divide between Republicans result in a plurality of primary votes going to Alvarez because the Republicans had split their votes between Faulconer and Fletcher Nathan?
Doh… I forgot, Fletcher Nathan is a Democrat now.
Never mind.
Mr Aguirre does not need to drop out. He is the most experienced candidate and he is truly progressive without the chains of special interests. Mike Aguirre debates almost daily with the othe 3 candidates. Nathan, David and Kevin are not addressing the true issues. They are selling themselves. Mike Aguirre learned a tough lesson about his combative reputation. He has changed. I for one know that Mike Aguirre is the only candidate that will fix our city’s pension problem and truly focus on roads, neighborhoods, safety and infrastructure. Vote Mike Aguirre…the only choice for San Diego.
Well, at least I am not the only one. I wonder if the Author had a similar talk to a similar source.
I would prefer Democratic-Party-endorsed Councilman David Alvarez over the others as mayor. For one, I trust the endorsement of the Democratic Party and Donna Frye for whom I voted (write in) many years ago.
But more importantly, I don’t trust the newly Democratized Nathan Fletcher. For the first four years of his political career, he was a Republican. His door-to-door advocates don’t tell you this. He voted Republican during those four years. He was getting high marks from the Republican Party, the Chamber of Commerce, and other Republican-leaning organizations.
In March, 2012, Fletcher converted to Independent. I couldn’t ascertain the reason for his change. Recently, he has converted to Democrat. That is quite a big change in such a short time. I’m not ocnvinced someone can change their spots that radically.
And yet the Honorable Texan Judge Carlo Key (R) recently renounced his Republican roots and is switching to Democrat. This is starting to smell fishy.
If there’s one thing that can be said about Republicans, it’s that they will do anything to win. Anything. No, I don’t think you understand. I mean A N Y T H I N G…
They have sent misleading flyers to get people to vote incorrectly. They have sponsored robocalls to confus people when to vote and whether to vote. They have drawn redistricting lines illegally in attempts to decrease the influence of the Democratic vote. They have hung out at polling places to intimidate Democratic voters. They have lied to Democratic voters requesting IDs while allowing Republicans unfettered access to the voting booths. They have enacted laws to limit the Democratic vote. They have run fake Democrats to dilute/split the Democratic vote. They have shown time and again that they will do anything to win. Again, I don’t think you understand. A N Y T H I N G.
So, is this another ploy by the Republicans? Here is what I wonder. Are they running Republicans disguised as Democrats. Now, they have a two chances of winning: a Republican and a Demlican. If the Demlican succeeds in splitting the Democrat vote, the Republican can waltz in. If the Demlican wins the vote, s/he just votes along Republican party lines.
The only way they lose is if the True Democrat wins. And the Republicans were going to lose anyway, so it was an expected loss.
I don’t trust Nathan Fletcher or Carlo Key for that matter. I think it’s another of the Republicans’s unethical tactics at winning elections. Which leads me to wonder why politicians don’t have to take ethics training?
I am a republican and your giving the R’s too much credit for your conspiracy theory. Honestly, the R’s in San Diego are fighting to get their stronghold back. They are ruthless and anyone with integrity need not apply. I was thoroughly disgusted to see my conservative party be so rotten. I stand by my conservative values but I do not stand with my so called party. I feel Nathan also experienced the same moral dilemma. I may be giving him more credit than he deserves but I for one do not think you should accuse him of being potentially a political operative. Alvarez is not experienced enough to tackle the overwhelming task of leading our fine city to fiscal solvency. Mike is the only one looking realistically at the budget which includes the daunting pension.