By Doug Porter
The Columbia Journalism Review recently posted an article about philanthropist Malin Burnham’s intentions to purchase San Diego’s daily newspaper. The only news in the piece–it’s still just a possibility– was that several large local non-profits have been approached about overseeing the deal.
The CJR report did talk about Papa Doug’s history of partisanship and boosterism for projects near and dear to his wallet. A September 2012 editorial predicting doom and gloom should President Barack Obama be re-elected was mentioned…
We’re at the halfway point in his final term so I thought it be appropriate to revisit many of those those predictions and comment on the progress made (or not) in what UT-San Diego’s editorial board predicted would be a national nightmare.
This is going to be fun, I promise.
What will San Diego look like by 2016 if Obama wins? We surveyed several economists and came up with a few of our own projections. It is not a pretty picture.
Their message was to be afraid, be very afraid…
…the U-T sees $8- to $10-a-gallon gasoline in 2016.
While pundits regularly credit or blame presidents for gasoline prices, the connection between politics and what’s paid at the pump is tenuous at best. I paid $2.29 a gallon yesterday, meaning I filled up for less than $25. Last year fill-ups were running $40-45.
From the (January 15th) Wall Street Journal:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its monthly short-term energy outlook released Tuesday, called for benchmark U.S. crude-oil prices to average $54.58 a barrel this year, down from $93.26 a barrel in 2014. In December, the agency said U.S. prices would average $62.75 this year.
The agency released estimates for 2016 for the first time. Next year, the agency expects U.S. prices to average $71 a barrel.
…With virtually no coal industry, due to regulations, cap-and-trade, and with oil drilling limited, a 40-50 percent increase in your monthly SDG&E bill
Let’s start with the coal industry, via the US Energy Information Administration Short Term Outlook, published January 13, 2015:
And then there’s the limited oil drilling issue, again via the US Energy Information Administration Short Term Outlook, published January 13, 2015:
UT-San Diego did score a partially correct prediction with regard to SDG&E bills increasing. Except that the increases are being driven by Gov. Schwarzenegger’s 2008 executive order S-14-08, requiring utilities to have 33% of their load generated by renewable energy in 2020.
From the (January 26, 2015) Voice of San Diego:
Federal Energy Information Administration data shows the average San Diego commercial customer paid 41 percent more per kilowatt hour of energy than the U.S. average in 2012. Industrial companies in San Diego paid 46 percent more per kilowatt hour…
…That gulf’s likely increased since SDG&E raised rates by 21 to 24 percent last year, leaving companies with sticker shock.
…we predict many Californians will be paying 60 to 70 percent of their income. But 65 percent of Californians will pay no tax at all
This one’s trickier than it seems. I think the key word in their prediction might be “many.” Going back a couple of years to the infamous threat by golfer Phil Michelson to leave San Diego for greener tax pastures, the Tax Foundation found that somebody earning $48 million would have paid 51.9% on wage income.
So it’s possible that Dougie Manchester’s rich friends might have to cough up more dough in 2016 than in 2012. Given that they are the only ones getting ahead these days, that’s as it should be as far as I’m concerned.
From Economist Jared Bernstein in a February 4, 2015 op-ed published in the New York Times:
As part of his second campaign, recall that part of President Obama’s platform was not to raise taxes on families below $250,000. After he won, that threshold rose to $450,000.
Only about 3 percent of households have income above $250,000 and less than 1 percent have more than $450,000.
California, with its crippling tax rates and over-regulation, will lead the nation with more than 12 percent unemployment.
From the (January 14, 2015) San Francisco Chronicle:
California’s unemployment rate dropped to an even 7.0 percent in December from 7.2 percent in November and 8.3 percent in December 2013, according to the Employment Development Department.
From (December 3, 2014) UT-San Diego:
The nation’s economy will expand at its fastest pace since the end of the Great Recession, and California is going to have a lot to do with that success in the coming year, says a key economic forecast released Wednesday.
Chapman University’s Anderson Center for Economic Research expects the U.S. economy to grow at an annual rate of 3 percent in 2015, a pace not seen since 2007, the year in which the Great Recession began. That’s going to be largely driven by California, one of the world’s largest economies and a state that sells goods and services domestically and globally.
We predict that, with Obamacare, if you are over 65 a ride to Mexico will become commonplace, as there will be rationed care in the U.S. Death panels and other rationing plans will limit care.
Here’s Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast:
…there are the several million—somewhere between 6 million and 12 million, depending on which source you believe—more Americans with health insurance. Those who pay closer attention to such things might have noticed developments like one that happened at the end of July, when the Medicare trustees’ report said that the program’s solvency could extend for an additional four years, to 2030, because of savings achieved through the ACA. But of course, the percentage of Americans who know that is infinitesimal.
So, yes—jury still out and all that. Perceptions remain terrible. But it’s worth stepping back and looking at reality. And the reality is this: On the evidence available to us so far, nearly everything that the more vocal conservative critics have said about the ACA has been wrong. No. “Wrong” implies a statement made in good faith. These charges were often made in the worst possible faith. And they were lies.
Oh, and about that Deathcare Panel thingie…
There was one report that made the rounds of Facebook last year about the first person executed by an Obamacare death panel. It originated with the satirical newspaper The Daily Currant and was dutifully reprinted, even though the name of the dead person was Dorothy Zborknak, a slightly misspelled version of Bea Arthur’s character on the TV show The Golden Girls.
Politifact.com rated this internet myth as “Pants on Fire,” just as they’d awarded the original 2009 death panel story as Lie of the Year.
As Obama’s war on God and life continues, we predict an effort to have late-term abortions paid for by taxpayers
The only changes in abortion laws have been the dozens and dozens of state laws restricting access to abortion since 2012. The most recent Capital Hill bill (“Pain Capable Unborn Child Protection Act“) banning abortions after the 20th week of a pregnancy died several weeks back following objections from women in the Senate who happen to be Republicans.
We even predict an effort to get “In God we Trust” removed from U.S. symbols, including our money.
Once again, the only recent report about getting the G-word banned from cash appeared in a satirical publication called the National Report. The conservatives just don’t realize just how silly their fantasies are.
Here’s how the UT-San Diego be-scared-of-Obama editorial wind up to pitching a vote for Romney:
The alternative 2016 paints a vastly different picture, as it reinforces our values as Americans, with a country under God, and freedom for all. By creating 12 million new jobs, the middle class and the weakest of all Americans are helped most. America’s economic expectations will be raised and spirit will soar.
We are in the longest consecutive period of job growth since these numbers have been recorded. Sadly, job creation hasn’t helped the middle class. The historical record shows that trickle down economic policies (as Romney and his fellow millionaires espouse) have only benefited the wealthy top tier of the nation’s population.
I think the UT’s record speaks for itself.
On This Day: 1913 – Rosa Parks, whose refusal to give up her bus seat to a white man launched the 1955 Montgomery, Ala., bus boycott and the birth of the civil rights movement, was born in Tuskeege, Ala. 2001 – Jimmy Buffet was ordered by NBA referee Joe Forte to give up his courtside seat due to the use of profanity. After a several-minute delay, the game between the Miami Heat and the visiting New York Knicks continued. 2004 – The social networking website Facebook was launched.
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