Christmas 2015 Notable for Extreme Weather Throughout the US
By John Lawrence
Record high temperatures on Christmas day, as much as 30 degrees F above normal, were experienced up and down the eastern portion of the US. At the same time, tornadoes destroyed homes and lives in the nation’s midsection and south. December 2015 saw more than 2,600 record high temperatures; major metropolitan areas in the Northeast saw some of the warmest Christmas Eves and Days on record.
On Christmas Eve temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees higher than previous records. It was 71 F in New York City, and the same in Philadelphia and Washington, DC.
From 82 degrees in Savannah, Georgia, to 79 in Norfolk, Virginia, to 68 in Philadelphia, to 62 in Portland, Maine, cities up and down the East Coast tied or smashed record high temperatures for Christmas Day. Not only have the daytime temperatures been warm, but the nighttime lows in many locations have been running 10 degrees above the normal daily low temperature. Not only did the United States see record temperatures last month, but much of Europe is warm as well. It was nearly 50 degrees F in Moscow Christmas week, with puddles–not ice–surrounding the Kremlin.
Tornadoes, Flooding Kill At Least 43 in Southern US
While the East Coast enjoyed unseasonably warm weather, people in the south were suffering. In the Southeast, there were torrential rains and tornadoes. As of Christmas night, 15 deaths in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas had been linked to this severe weather, in addition to scores of injuries. The Mississippi Governor declared a State of Emergency. At least 11 people died and dozens were injured in strong tornadoes that swept through the Dallas area. Vehicles were mangled, power lines fell and trees were toppled. As many as 1450 homes were damaged or destroyed
The Governor of Alabama declared a State of Emergency as an EF-2 tornado swept through Birmingham with 130 mph winds. Flooding rains turned Alabama roads into rivers. 200 roads were closed. Two dozen tornadoes were recorded in three states in the south killing at least 18 people.
Christmas weekend at least 11 tornadoes swept through Dallas suburbs. Cars were swept off I-30. Dozens were injured. 29 people died from tornadoes in 5 states, triple the number of tornado-related deaths all year.
In Houston my friend, Gary Kane, reported a record total rainfall for the year of 84.43 inches, just beating 84.32 inches in 1979, which included a tropical storm named Claudett, which dumped 17 inches over night. The state of Texas, except for about 6%, is now considered out of any drought condition. In the 44 years that Gary has been measuring temps and rainfall, the average rainfall has been 52.73 inches. So last year (2015) rainfall was almost 32 inches above average. This was just for Gary’s house though, not the official tally.
In New Mexico snow was coupled with hurricane force wind gusts. A State of Emergency was declared. More than 200 car accidents in New Mexico injured more than 60 people. At the same time, a 1200 acre wildfire sparked by a downed power line was being fought in Ventura, CA.
Snowfall records, rainfall records, and severe weather records were happening simultaneously in the same state of Texas.
On Christmas day flash flood watches were in effect for parts of 16 states, from Texas in the West to Indiana and Ohio in the north to Virginia in the East.
EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes were reported. The city of Garland, Texas was declared a disaster area. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott made disaster declarations for four counties — Dallas, Collin, Rockwall and Ellis. Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin declared a state of emergency after blizzard conditions, ice storms and flooding caused by as much as 9 inches of rain were suffered there.
While St. Louis itself stayed mostly dry thanks to a floodwall, its suburbs were water-logged. The biggest problems came from the Meramec River — a tributary of the Mississippi — which at points topped the 1993 record flood level by 4 feet. Hundreds of homes and business were evacuated in Pacific, Eureka, Valley Park and Arnold, Missouri. Eleven levees failed. I-44 and I-55 were closed. Traffic was at a standstill. The flooding problems started after more than 10 inches of rain fell in an area spanning Illinois to Missouri. 22 people have died mostly in cars that were swept away. Wastewater plants were flooded out with the result that raw sewage washed into rivers.
In St. Louis the Mississippi floods at 30 feet. On December 30 it was brimming at 41.5. It was expected to go to 43, 13 feet above flood stage, the highest mark since 1993 when 100,000 homes were destroyed. Interstates were shut down. Sewage was being spewed into a fast moving river. Communities were being evacuated. Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri called in the National Guard and declared a State of Emergency. 14 million Americans faced flood watches. In St. Louis it’s been the wettest year and wettest December on record.
Twelve Illinois counties have been declared disaster areas, and Gov. Bruce Rauner ordered Illinois National Guard troops into flooded areas in the southern part of the state to mitigate flood damage and help with evacuation efforts.
Midwest and plains states experienced snow, blizzards, gale force winds torrential rain and tornadoes all mixed in together in a melange of bad weather that put 75 million people in the path of danger. Travelers were left stranded as thousands of flights were cancelled or delayed.
As the month ended, flood waters continued to rise on the Mississippi. The water in Saint Louis was 12 feet above flood stage. The Meramec, Missouri and Mississippi Rivers were all brimming threatening to overtop levees. Later the Meramec River crested shattering 18 records. More than 100,000 have been stranded on the road. States downstream were getting ready to absorb the huge amounts of water that flooded upstream states.
Weather women Dylan Dreyer and Karen Wetter were kept busy explaining why this El Niño has been so devastating and will only get worse. Anchorwoman Kate Snow observed that her name presaged more of that in the east.
82 Die in Floods Across Europe
Torrential rains across central Europe have led to the worst flooding in decades, claiming the lives of 82 people. At least 58 died in the Black Sea area, where thousands of Russian tourists were caught out by floodwaters that swept cars and tents out to sea.
Thousands of British tourists are being forced to cancel holidays amid the chaos. One of the worst-hit cities is Prague, where more than 50,000 people, including foreign visitors, were evacuated as the most devastating floods for more than a century threatened to engulf the Czech capital.
Soldiers and hundreds of volunteers worked building sandbag barriers. But as torrential rain continued to fall, a state of emergency was declared.
Parts of Mala Strana, the medieval area of the city center, were almost certain to be flood-damaged as the deluge forced dams on the river Vltava to open their gates. Prague has not seen the river as high since 1890 with estimates putting the water flow at 20 times the average for the time of year.
In Austria, Salzburg has been declared a disaster zone and Vienna is under threat. The Danube has been closed to all shipping as the river has swollen to a near 100-year high. Three people have been killed in towns near Salzburg. In the city itself 1,000 buildings were partially or totally submerged, and the sightseeing boat Amadeus sank. An emergency services spokesman in Upper Austria, where over three-quarters of the region is affected by flooding, said 8,000 workers and volunteers were ready to help evacuate residents.
Meanwhile in England
It was the warmest December on record and the wettest on record in Scotland and Wales.
An army company has helped build temporary flood defenses in Cumbria in the northwest of England as residents struggled with the winter storms nd heavy rains. That part of the country was still reeling from Storm Desmond earlier in December.
Environment Minister Rory Stewart called the rainfall in the flooded areas unprecedented. The Met Office, according to the Environment Agency, “confirmed this is the wettest December on record for Cumbria since records began in 1910.” More than 7,300 homes were flooded across the north of England as river levels reached record highs.
December has been a record-breaking month for rainfall other in parts of the United Kingdom as well. A Christmas weekend storm brought up to 8 inches of additional rainfall on saturated soil. The Met Office listed just a small portion of the December rainfall records that were set Christmas weekend, in some cases blowing away the previous December records by 10 inches.
However, there is already clear evidence that what has happened over the past month or so in terms of temperature and rainfall has fallen outside the range of the natural variability of the notoriously fickle British weather, according to a growing number of climate experts.
“There is no doubt in my mind that climate change is partly responsible for the flooding across the North of England. This December is around 5 C warmer than normal and physics tells us that 24-hour extreme rainfall increases by 7 percent per degree,” said Piers Forster, professor of climate science at Leeds University.
South America Floods
More than 150,000 people were forced to evacuate their homes in areas of Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina after floods due to heavy summer rains caused by El Niño, authorities said. In Paraguay, which was the hardest-hit, more than 130,000 people were evacuated. In Alberdi city, residents fled as walls holding back water appeared on the verge of collapse, authorities said. Argentina had 20,000 evacuees, half of them from Concordia city.
The floods, caused by overflowing rivers and torrential rains blamed on the El Niño phenomenon, have been responsible for at least eight deaths: six in Paraguay and two in Uruguay. The Paraguay River in that nation is within inches of topping its banks, and the Uruguay River in Argentina is 46 feet above normal, according to a BBC News report.
Authorities are preparing to cope with the possibility of diseases spreading – heightened by the fact that mosquitos and snakes thrive in swamp-like conditions. Overflowing sewers have also caused homes to have dirty running water.
Fires in Australia at Christmas
At the same time when many were enjoying a warm Christmas on the East coast and many others were suffering from tornadoes in the south, on the other side of the world in Australia, 116 homes were burning in Victoria. It’s fire season in Australia at Christmas time.
The Insurance Council of Australia declared the bushfires a catastrophe, estimating initial insurance losses of $25 million. Some relief was forthcoming from the state’s coffers. Victorian Emergency Services Minister Jane Garrett said the relief grants would help locals get back on their feet as fast as possible. “It has been devastating for these communities at Christmas time, which is why we are making sure people have the support they need,” she said.
The Wrap-up for 2015
2015 was the hottest year on record. There were more extreme weather incidents than any other year. While El Niñohas been getting a lot of press, the El Niño was made much more severe by global warming.
Extreme heat killed more than 1200 people in Pakistan and 2500 in India. Many died because the power and air conditioning went off at peak heat periods when it was needed most. Heat waves also affected Iraq and Iran. Typhoons rocked the Philippines. High temperatures in Alaska made for the hottest May on record. Myanmar and Ghana experienced record flooding. Droughts in California, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Brazil set records. Temperatures at the North Pole were 50 degrees F above normal in December surging above the freezing point of 32 degrees.
Scientists at Oxford University have started work on a scientific model they hope will enable them to establish or rule out links between climate change and extreme weather more quickly. “We want to clear up the huge amounts of confusion around how climate change is influencing the weather, in both directions,” Dr Friederike Otto, of Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute, said.
John Lawrence
Latest posts by John Lawrence (see all)
- Economist Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Laureate, Dead at 95 - March 22, 2017
- Container Ships Burn Dirtiest Fuel: the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Could Change That - March 15, 2017
- Cities and States Prefer Public Banks To Wall Street - March 7, 2017
It’s been pretty clear for a while now that the Mississippi River drainage area is a flood plain. Maybe those states that host all those tributaries can join with the federal government to create a system of dykes and lakes. That would be a sane reaction to reality. It would provide lots of good jobs, save people from having to move themselves to another state and just might produce a water pipeline to the parched (until this week) west, where we buy bottled water.
I’ve never understood why folks would choose to live in a flood plain in the first place.
Violent storms and extreme weather all over the world in December… I’ve heard meteorologists explain that this has been due to the effects of “El Ninjo” in the Pacific.
Can someone please come on here and explain what causes El Ninjo?
All this or at least most of it has been on the news almost daily. One would think that citizens would take to the streets protesting about it, but oh no…I will bet that most did not even contact their congressman. What is with us? It appears that most refuse to even think about it. Scary as hell!
There is so much denial and misinformation coming from congress and the media about climate change, the average American doesn’t read or research enough to understand the science. When we have congressmen who believe the earth is 6,000. years old is there any hope??
Paul,
In the past, I’ve examined the El Nino and La Nina processes. So here’s a more recent go at it.
What many people understandably don’t understand is the mix and interrelationship of forces driving climate. Presently, there are TWO key forces now driving climate change: anthropogenic (human caused) GHG emissions and natural El Ninos. And there are FOUR key natural forces affecting (or not affecting) climate change: the Sun, stratospheric aerosol particles (from small volcanoes and from possibly China’s heavy industrialization), the oceans and La Ninas. When trade winds in the eastern tropical Pacific that usually blow from east to west weaken, sea surface temperatures rise. Thus, El Nino years tend to be hotter than average (as happened in 1997-98). The opposite is true for La Ninas when trade winds strengthen and a number of them in occur sequence.
The exact interaction, timing, positive or negative feedbacks of these El Nino/La Nina forces still have scientists searching for answers. However,one thing is clear … studies show convincingly that the Sun and aerosol natural variability forces have had a relatively small effect on depressing earth temperatures in recent decades. But interactions between the oceans, wind forces and the atmosphere can lead to a substantial difference in surface temperatures.
In two decades prior to 1998, global temperatures had risen on average 0.21 C per decade, reaching a record high in 1998 intensified by a powerful El Nino in 1998. In 1998-2013, the so-called 15 year “hiatus” or slowdown in the rate of increase of surface warming occurred, although warming temperatures rates remained much higher in the Arctic (for reasons I won’t get into to keep things simpler). Some scientists attribute this slowdown in the rate of surface temperature increase to a number of small La Ninas taking place in times of strong eastern tropical Pacific winds.
This has led skeptics, deniers and some scientists to assert that the 15 year”hiatus” proves that future warming might well not be as strong as feared. This in turn has encouraged more intensified scientific focus on natural variable factors affecting earth warming and climate change including the Sun, aerosols, oceans, El Ninos and La Ninas. To date, the vast majority of scientists are convinced the Earth is definitely on a long-term warming trend and there is much data to support this conclusion..
Explaining in a simple, coherent manner the integrated effects of humans and natural forces on climate change is extremely difficult, even for most scientists, given exceptional complexity of these forces. For some time I’ve been examining scientific documentation on human and naturally induced warming. One of the better, simply written, complete, well-referenced Overviews I’v read to date is a paper by Brad Plumer, “El Nino, Explained: A Guide to the Biggest Weather Story of 2015,” December 15, 2015.
As noted above, 1998 was the last time a severe El Nino happened when global warming peaked. Despite the so-called “hiatus” that subsequently occurred, NASA has said 2014 was likely the hottest year on record with NO El Nino. And that extreme heat continued in 2015. Last March, NOAA reported a weak El Nino that many thought would die out. BUT, new evidence reveals the El Nino is greatly strengthening and could last until next spring. Ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific are soaring as a result of global warming happening in combination with an extremely,potentially monstrous, El Nino. More GHG atmospheric emissions mean more and more heat is trapped on Earth’s surface. But a huge percentage of that heat enters the oceans … and when an El Nino so powerful with weakened trade winds in combination with global warming comes along,that extra ocean heat rises to the surface, making the planet ever warmer.
When trade winds are stable or normal in the eastern tropical Pacific, much of the extra or added heat is trapped beneath the ocean surface. BUT, when trade winds weaken, as is now happening in concert with the current El Nino, surface water temperatures increase as result of less cold water rising from below the surface to cool the surface. So much energy is released into the atmosphere by the warm waters that a chain of highly damaging weather patterns break out across the globe – bringing recurring floods over certain regions (including huge rains in California which may be a good thing) and droughts and fires in other regions (like Indonesia. As one scientist stated:
“This El Nino is playing out in the context of record warm ocean temperatures, so it could have unpredictable impacts. Our scientific knowledge of El Nino has increased substantially in recent years. But this naturally occurring “powerful El Nino and human induced climate change may interact and modify each other in ways which we have never experienced before.”
Thank you, Frank. It sounds like Brad Plumer’s piece that you cite would be a good place to turn next for us non-scientific types to learn more.
Addendum: La Ninas and El Ninos
During short La Nina cycles, strong Pacific subtropical trade winds churn ocean waters, shifting more heat to the deep oceans leaving less to warm the surface. In 1998-2013, this led to a temporary cooling effect in average global surface temperatures, partially offsetting the increased greenhouse warming effect. Still, the natural La Nina cooling effect of simply moving heat around between the oceans and atmosphere did not stop the overall upward warming of oceans and planet in past years.
When oceans reverse back to an El Nino cycle that occurs every 3-5 years and sometimes every 2 years, ocean trade winds weaken and oceans become much less efficient in absorbing heat. As noted, this in turn accelerates warming of global surface temperatures together with increased greenhouse gas warming taking place now.
That is why the current El Nino – perhaps the most powerful El Nino weather cycle recorded – spells a likely onslaught of extremely destructive, volatile droughts, fires, record precipitation, floods, and food shortages across the globe in 2016.
The impact of El Nino and La Nina events on global temperatures largely offset each other over the long term. But scientists are uncertain now whether a possible switch back to a short-term La Nina phase will later cancel out the extra global warming produced by today’s ominously powerful, recurring El Ninos combined with global warming from rise in greenhouse gas effect.
Thank you once again Frank for the education. It seems that the El Nina/El Nino events are causing of some of the extreme weather events we are seeing particularly on the west coast. It also appears from what you tell us that they are cyclical in nature. Do you know what causes them to occur in the first place?
In summary, we seem to be experiencing cyclical events (the El Nina/Nino cycle)in addition to a gradual increase in the surface temperature of the earth. These are separate events even though they occur simultaneously. It is the gradual but steady, long-term increase that is the phenomenon we commonly know as “global warming”, while cyclical events like the El Nina/El Nino cycle either exacerbate or mitigate this inexorable rise in surface temperature over the short-term, but do not change the fact that over the longer term, the earth’s temperature is steadily rising. AND THAT STEADY RISING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
So, assuming we all agree that over the longer term, that the earth’s surface temperature is indeed rising steadily despite short-term ups and downs (caused by events like the El Nina/El Nino cycle), I have to ask those who are inclined to deny a documented steady increase in the earth’s surface temperature over time, if this rise is not caused by increasing amounts of CO2 (and other gases such as methane) in the atmosphere trapping heat at the earth’s surface (produced primarily by industrialized civilization), then just exactly what is causing the earth’s surface temp to rise?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration state records
for extreme weather ( http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records ) shows that, of the 347 state records set (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, max rainfall, min rainfall, etc.) between 1893 and the present, NONE occurred in 2015.
Only one occurred in each of 2014, 2013 and 2012.
Clearly, on a state-wide basis, there is no increase in extreme weather records.
Sincerely,
Tom Harris, B. Eng., M. Eng. (Mech.)
Executive Director
International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC)
http://www.climatescienceinternational.org
Note: ICSC is not right wing (our participants come from across the
political spectrum), is not funded by ‘big oil,’ and are not
lobbyists or ‘shills’ for industry of any sort. I have never
worked as a PR rep for any company or sector.
According to CNN, December 23, 2015:
“After a quick burst of cool air over the weekend, the mercury is on its way up again over much of the East.
It’s another chapter in what has been an incredibly warm December over much of the Eastern United States in what has been coined among some meteorologists as the “blowtorch.”
This month alone, more than 2,600 record high temperatures have been recorded and many more are expected before the New Year.
What is so unusual is just how warm it is expected to get. Many of the major metropolitan areas in the Northeast will likely see some of the warmest Christmas Eves and Christmas Days on record.”
The information Mr. Harris cites is on a state by state basis. Clearly, there are other kinds of records – on a national basis, on an earth wide basis, on the basis of other countries than the US.
The focus of the group that Mr. Harris is executive Director of, ICSC, is climate change denial.
Here are some more broken records from NOAH’s website:
“The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.
“June 2015 also marks the fourth month this year that has broken its monthly temperature record, along with February, March, and May. The other months of 2015 were not far behind: January was second warmest for its respective month and April was third warmest. These six warm months combined with the previous six months (four of which were also record warm) to make the period July 2014–June 2015 the warmest 12-month period in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set just last month (June 2014–May 2015). As shown in the table below, the 10 warmest 12-month periods have all been marked in the past 10 months.”
The full report, NOAH’s Global Analysis for December 2015 will be out January 13. Check back then.
Is the NOAA report due out on Jan 13 available yet?
No, they come out on the third Thursday which is 2 days from now. Elsewhere on their website they announce December 2015 ranked first for both temperature and precipitation for the contiguous US.
NOAA’s December Global Analysis report is out:
“The December 2015 globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces was 1.11°C (2.00°F) above the 20th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F), the highest for any month since records began in 1880, surpassing the previous all-time record set two months ago in October by 0.12°C (0.21°F). This is the first time the global monthly departure from average has surpassed 1°C and is the largest margin by which an all-time monthly temperature record has been broken. Incredibly, the December 2015 temperature also surpasses the December record temperature set last year by 0.29°C (0.52°F), the largest margin by which a monthly temperature record has been broken for its respective month. And comparing to December 1997, the last December when a comparatively strong El Niño was in place, the December 2015 global temperature was 0.49°C (0.88°F) higher. Finally, this December also marks the eighth consecutive month (since April 2015) with a global monthly temperature breaking the record for its respective month.”
Mr. Lawrence claims, “The focus of the group that Mr. Harris is executive Director of, ICSC, is climate change denial.”
That is an ignorant statement. We say that climate changes all the time and that we should help people adapt.
Okay, your group are not deniers, they’re anti-climate change mitigation. In other words, let the dirty energy companies have their way and quit complaining.
http://www.desmogblog.com/tom-harris
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/5/12/1384339/-Facing-the-Facts-and-Fictions-of-the-Climate-Change-Deniers
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/International_Climate_Science_Coalition
http://www.skepticalscience.com/tom-harris-carleton-university-climate-misinformation-class.html
https://deepclimate.org/2012/03/08/tom-harris-heartland-and-the-2007-bali-open-letter-to-the-u-n/#more-4432
http://scholarsandrogues.com/2015/02/16/tom-harris-hypocritical-peddler-of-deceitful-climate-change-editorials/
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/02/28/434196/fakegate-heartland-scientist-debunked/
etc, etc…
Mr. Harris takes a very narrow view of what constitutes a record – max and min temperatures on a statewide basis. What about max and min average temperatures? Max and min average rainfalls on a monthly or yearly basis?
I cited all the stats the NOAA records for state records, typically five, though sometimes more. Lawrence is deceiving people again when he says that I am only citing max and min temperatures.
Tom,
Thank you for your contribution. John asks a good question it seems. And that is, just what are “state-records” and why are they important in assessing global temperatures?
Here’s another record for you Mr. Harris:
“During the northern Pacific hurricane season in the summer and fall of 2015, 25 category 4 and 5 hurricanes/typhoons developed, a record as compared to the previous record of 18. Changed weather patterns resulted in lack of rain and thus strong drought and wildfires in Indonesia that have degraded air quality over hundreds of miles.”
Paul,
Can finally get back to your question about causes of El Nino and La Nina events.
According to NOAA (National Climate Data Center), El Ninos go back thousands of years. But scientists still do not understand in detail what triggers an El Nino or La Nina cycle.
El Ninos do occur much more frequently than La Ninas. They persist up to a year or more years, occurring between every 2 up to seven years. Their effects on tropical as well as global temperature and weather patterns can last many seasons.
Here is 150 year history:
1866-1900………La Ninas were more prevalent and stronger
1900-1941………El Ninos were more prevalent; earth warmed greatly
1941-1976………A period of Balance between El Ninos and La Ninas
1976-1998………El Ninos dominated La Ninas; earth warmed rapidly by two powerful El Ninos in 1982-83 and 1997-98
1998-2013………A period of Balance – the earth’s temperature remained essentially unchanged in part due to 15 year La Nina-like cooling that experts say lowered the global surface temperature by about 0.15C vs. the 1990s.
2014-2015……… After a failed El Nino in 2014, a “super” El Nino is now apparently evolving as sea surface temperatures are sharply rising.
CAUSES OF EL NINOS & LA NINAS:
Hopefully in a clear non-technical manner, I’ll explain some of the known cause-and-effect signals of a forthcoming El Nino or La Nina. My earlier comments form part of this expanded explanation.
CAUSES Of El NINO & La NINA:
In NORMAL non-El Nino conditions, trade winds blow strongly from east (cooler and of higher pressure) to west (warmer and of lower pressure) along the equator in the Pacific. This draws sun-warmed surface water from the eastern part of the Pacific (areas like Peru). Some of the warm water piles up in a large pool in the western part of the Pacific (areas like Indonesia). In the eastern part, deeper and colder water is pulled up from below to replace the warm surface water pushed west. Sea surface temperature is about 8C warmer in the west tropical Pacific while cooler temperatures persist in the east tropical Pacific. The larger the temperature and pressure differences, the stronger the winds blow to the west. This describes a NORMAL non-El Nino situation.
One signal of an El Nino is the weakening of west-bound trade winds,or when the winds reverse direction and head back towards the eastern Pacific coast. The warm water that has been shifting to the west Pacific reaches a buildup point where it starts flowing back to the east. (Rare ‘Rossby’ and ‘Kelvin’ ocean waves also play a complicated role in this water reversal and resultant east-west ocean temperature changes).
Experts predict an official El Nino cycle when they see ocean temperatures and rainfall shift from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific along the equator. When warm water movements oscillate to the east, the warm phase of an El Nino is created. The warmer ocean in the east further weakens the surface trade winds. So if the winds weaken, the ocean gets warmer, which makes the winds become weaker, which makes the ocean become warmer … i.e., all positive feedbacks that make an El Nino grow and climate matters cumulatively worse.
Warm water piles up in the east. The results are warm water movements eastward that eventually bring floods in normally dry Peru and droughts in normally wet Indonesia – just the opposite of a La Nina or a (balanced) El Nino/La Nina condition. This is where we seem to be going in a big way now.
In brief, the very buildup of warm waters in the west (to a certain point) under NORMAL circumstances – i.e., during a non-El Nino or a La Nina – ultimately triggers an El Nino.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
In 2014, a very strong warm water swell, called a ‘Kevin Wave,’ crossed the Pacific causing experts to forecast a powerful El Nino for winter 2014. This proved not to work out because the trade winds and storms (or changes in climate) never came along as they should have, and the feedbacks between atmosphere and ocean changes never developed. Despite this forecast EL Nino failure, the current El Nino in process seems to be the real thing and an extremely powerful one.
While El Ninos are naturally occurring events causing extreme weather patterns across the world, scientists believe global warming from greenhouse gases combined with the increasing number and intensity of El Ninos the last few decades are intensifying the overall effects.
Meteorologists say this year’s sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific are likely to reach record highs – potentially placing the current ‘super’ El Nino among the strongest events since 1950.
Stay tuned!
Thanks once again for all your effort, Frank. This is indeed a complicated but important subject.
Fossil-fuels are inherently limited in supply, and from what I’ve read, the “easy” fossil-fuels have all been tapped already. Regardless of which fossil-fuel, it only gets harder, more dangerous and more expensive from here on out for civilization to continue to power itself with them. It seems to me that at some point in its development human civilization needs to move to renewal sources of energy. The sooner the better in my view.
It is proving to be a costly and time-consuming transition, which is only exacerbated by the fact that the US pretty much ignored Jimmy Carter’s call for renewable energy development back in the 1970s. Instead, now we must effect that transition under much greater pressure– we’ve lost 40 years. In addition, many individuals with professional training in the field are convinced that the burning of fossil-fuels is heating the planet, which only adds to the time-pressure to accomplish this transition and do it well.
Transition means change, and change means more pain for some and less pain for others. We are at a stage in this transition in which many of us are still benefiting greatly from their use of fossil-fuel, myself among those. But, recognizing the need for all of us to reduce our use of these fuels, I am doing all I can to minimize my own use of these fuels (oil primarily in my case): replace fossil-fuel appliances in my home with more efficient appliances powered by electricity (which I am hoping will continue to transition itself off of fossil-fuel use to renewables like solar and wind), and install a PV solar array on my roof that will generate more electricity than I use in the summer.
I’ve reviewed Tom Harris’s reference to the NIPCC 2015 report. For years, the NIPCC has taken a fundamentally skeptical position on anthropogenic climate change. Robert Carter, Craig Isdo, S. Fred Singer and Tom Harris have been supporters of the scientific claim that the human effect on climate is small relative to variable forces of natural origin. Global warming and frequent weather chaos is nothing to worry about. It will very unlikely exceed 2C. We can adjust to it.
And whatever warming that does occur is beneficial but has costs. No distinction whatsoever is made between the short-term climate variability ‘noise’ contributing to a surface warming slowdown and the long-term trend reality. Exhaustive peer-proven reports confirm that projections of global temperatures by climate models are consistent with the recorded temperatures trends over recent decades ONLY if human impacts are included.
Yes, the consistency has been less for the 21st century with accelerating CO2 and slower growth in global warming. In addition to planet’s thermal inertia (i.e., including the ocean’s), the extremely low solar activity, La Ninas, aerosol emissions, etc., have contributed to the cooling. But the long-term global temperature path is still going UP.
NIPCC’s latest publication,”Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming,” Nov. 30,2015 has a number of misrepresentations and half truths. Robert Carter’s NIPCC-team-hypothesis is that there’s no link between global warming and human-induced CO2 emissions over last 150 years. The recent 1998-2014 ‘hiatus’ or decline in the average rate of increase of Earth’s surface temperatures, despite strong CO2 emissions, is cited as evidence supporting this conclusion. In NIPCC’s esoteric, garbled English:
“The causes of historic global warming remain uncertain, but significant correlations exist between climate patterning and multidecadal variation and solar activity over the past few hundred years.”
One point needs stressing; every day surface temperatures are NOT expected to perfectly track CO2 emissions. CO2 proliferation isn’t the only element driving climate change. The varying temperatures we feel each day are only a part of the solar energy taken in by the Earth. For example, the oceans have over 100 times the thermal storage capacity of the atmosphere to absorb the excess heat caused by human greenhouse activities. Human-caused warming is superimposed on a naturally variable climate system.
Thinking in terms of “heat energy” rather than surface temperature helps in understanding earth warming. The content of “heat energy” has been building up considerably in the atmosphere. This is because rising levels of greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere reduce the amount of energy escaping into space – thus creating a radiative imbalance of heat arriving and leaving the planet. The atmosphere stores less than 3% and the planet’s surface can only absorb heat slowly because it’s a poor conductor. All this does NOT mean the earth has stopped warming. Quite the opposite.
And let’s not forget the rapid heating up now happening to the Arctic ocean and consequent loss of albedo also contribute significantly to earth warming. Of course, Robert Carter’s NIPCC report trivalizes this serious development with following words:
“Melting of Arctic sea ice and polar icecaps is NOT occurring at ‘unnatural’ rates and does not constitute evidence of a human impact on the environment.”
So, no need to worry also about currently rising methane hydrate emissions as Arctic permafrost and ice shelves melt down at a record pace at much higher Arctic surface temperatures.
In general, the NIPCC report postures that the near-term threat of a climate cataclysm doesn’t exist! The correlations and coincidence of rising C02 and and rising global temperatures are not causation. The increase of C02 is no cause for alarm. It’s good for mankind … food production, for example, assuming latter survives floods and droughts.
And then there’s the El Nino/La Nina phenomena of changing westerly and easterly winds that affect how much heat and CO2 are going into and out of the Pacific ocean. The frequently occurring and dominating El Nino warming events in two periods of the 20th century and current super El Nino correlate with rising C02 concentrations and heating up of the atmosphere. James Lovelock, a scientist and experimenter of unquestionable orignality – whose inventive genius helped in detecting atmospheric CFCs that were causing a very dangerous growing hole in the ozone layer – believes the oceans may be playing a much bigger role in climate warming than we realize. It is good that climate model simulations now incorporate the observed Pacific ocean sea surface temperatures to more accurately reflect the influence of these ocean cycles.
NOAA’s reported last June that better research, improvements in quality of measurements indicate that the rate of temperature increase on Earth was as great or greater than shown in the IPCC report for 1998-2012. The rate of increase was not significantly slower than the strong increase 1951-2012. In NOAA’s words:
“Our new analysis suggests that the apparent hiatus may have been largely the result of limitations in past data sets, and that the rate of warming over the first 15 years of this century has, in fact, been as fast or faster than that seen over the last half of the 20th century.”
Robert Carter of the NIPCC thinks IPCC’s exhaustive climate-assessment report(s) and those of NOAA, UN agencies, Green organizations and a number of independent scientific academies worldwide are politicized, inaccurate, distorted, manipulated, unprofessional, corrupt for various reasons.
On the basis of such argumentation, or better said accusations, and the overwhelming peer-proven research of IPCC’s scientists from around the world, I’m not sure it’s worth the gamble that the Earth’s accelerating radiative energy input/output imbalance intensifying long-term climate warming poses NO threat of an environmental catastrophe within next 40-50 years?
NOAA’s forthcoming new report will be most interesting, John!
Note: NOAA refers to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2015/06/04/NOAA-There-was-no-pause-in-global-warming/3301433450221/)
Great article, John. Thanks for your information.
Some records for ya, Mr. Harris, from NOAA:
1) Twenty-nine states had the warmest December on record.
2) Record flooding along Mississippi River and its tributaries.
3) Every state across the contiguous U.S. was warmer than average for 2015.
In 2015, there were 10 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States.
These events include a drought event, 2 flooding events, 5 severe storm events, a wildfire event, and a winter storm event.
Annual Temperature: 54.4°F, +2.4°F above 20th century average. Only 2012 (55.3°F) was warmer.
2015 was the 2nd warmest year on record for the Contiguous United States.
Mr. Harris,
John Lawrence and Frank Thomas have presented data to support their positions. You claim to be a scientist and to belong to a scientific organization, yet you have thus far failed to produce any scientific evidence beyond the scanty data you cited with your January 8 claim: “Clearly, on a state-wide basis, there is no increase in extreme weather records.”
So, let’s hear it, Mr. Harris. If you fail to post evidence supporting your claim, I will have to conclude that you have none, and therefore your position is weak indeed.
Following up on my comment how heat absorption by oceans is potentially playing a significant role in the thermal energy being released back into the atmosphere from the oceans, an Associated Press Release yesterday confirms a study by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory of California that an astonishing amount of human-made heat has been absorbed by ocean waters at an equally astonishing rate in the past 18 years.
The amount of heat absorbed since 1997 is the equivalent to a Hiroshima-style bomb being exploded every second for 75 straight years or DOUBLE the heat energy ocean waters absorbed before 1997. As noted, this means the amount of energy being trapped in Earth’s climate system as a whole is accelerating. In addition to El Nino affects on atmospheric temperature, the warmer the oceans get, the less heat they can absorb and the more heat stays in the air – thus intensifying the Arctic ice meltdown process. This new study indicates how much heat has been buried in the oceans the last 150 years.Scientists know that 90% of the heat energy from human-induced global warming enters the oceans.
“These findings have potentially serious consequences for life in the oceans as well as for patterns of ocean circulation, storm tracks and storm intensity,” said Oregon State University marine sciences professor Jane Lubchenco, former chief of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (NOAA)(http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/ocean-heat-1.3408706)
Great article here. Nearly half of the increases in ocean temperature between 1865-2015 occurred in just the past 20 years, a rate which is steadily getting quicker, a new study published Monday reveals.
The New York Times reported today:
“Scientists reported Wednesday that 2015 was the hottest year in recorded history by far, breaking a record set only the year before — a burst of heat that has continued into the new year and is roiling weather patterns all over the world.
“In the continental United States, the year was the second-warmest on record, punctuated by a December that was both the hottest and the wettest since record-keeping began. One result has been a wave of unusual winter floods coursing down the Mississippi River watershed.”