Keep It In the Ground
By John Lawrence
Bill McKibben of 350.org said recently, “If our goal is to keep the Earth’s temperature from rising more than two degrees Celsius—the upper limit identified by the nations of the world—how much more new digging and drilling can we do? Here’s the answer: zero.”
The goal of keeping earth’s temperature rise below 2 degrees C is already in danger even with the coal mines, oil wells and pipelines currently in operation and assuming there will be no new ones. That means we shouldn’t be doing any more digging or drilling. It all has to stop — now — if the earth is to survive.
Some scientists think it is already too late. Meanwhile, the Federal government continues to lease land for oil and gas drilling. “If the world is serious about achieving the goals agreed in Paris, governments have to stop the expansion of the fossil fuel industry,” said OCI [Oil Change International] executive director Stephen Kretzmann. “The industry has enough carbon in the pipeline—today—to break through the sky’s limit.”
The problem is that the oil and gas industry continues to develop new capacity when the capacity already in the pipeline is enough to insure the destruction of the earth’s ecosystem. Even today we see the devastation produced by global warming with 20 inches of rain recently in 24 hours which produced massive flooding in Louisiana. Already “sunny day flooding” occurs in coastal regions of the US. Already low lying islands in the Pacific are disappearing beneath the ocean. The there’s Hurricane Matthew which is bringing devastation to the East Coast after making the Carribbean Islands practically uninhabitable.
The OCI report continued:
“This does not mean stopping using all fossil fuels overnight,” the researchers continue. “Governments and companies should conduct a managed decline of the fossil fuel industry and ensure a just transition for the workers and communities that depend on it.”
Given OCI’s assessment that, “If you let current fields begin their natural decline, you’ll be using 50 percent less oil by 2033,” McKibben estimates that the world has 17 years to replace current fossil fuel infrastructure with renewable energy.
“That’s enough time—maybe—to replace gas guzzlers with electric cars. To retrain pipeline workers and coal miners to build solar panels and wind turbines.”
“This is literally a math test,” he concludes, “and it’s not being graded on a curve. It only has one correct answer. And if we don’t get it right, then all of us—along with our 10,000-year-old experiment in human civilization—will fail.”
The Military Can’t Even Get the Government to Heed Its Concerns
Even the military is concerned about the effects of global warming on coastal military bases. The Climate Security Consensus Project, a bipartisan group of 25 senior military and national security experts, many of whom have served in previous Republican or Democratic administrations, said recently, “There’s absolutely nothing political about climate change. It’s a security risk, it makes other security risks worse, and we need to do something big about it”.
A Republican congressman from Colorado, Ken Buck, recently called one military proposal part of a “radical climate change agenda.” Experts are warning that national security is on the line. Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval base, is seriously threatened by rising seas. Obviously, naval bases can’t be moved away from the ocean, yet much of their land is at risk of disappearing within this century. “It’s as if the country was being attacked along every border, simultaneously,” said climate scientist Dr. Andrea Dutton.
Yet Donald Trump has vowed to withdraw from the Paris agreement on climate change on his first day in office. He says climate change is “bullshit.”
If we don’t want to save planet earth from assured destruction, we need to do nothing more than continue down the same course we’re on already. If we want to save the planet as a hospitable place for future generations, we need to change course drastically and immediately. NASA data released recently shows that not only was August the hottest since record-keeping started in 1880, but also it tied with July for the warmest month in the last 136 years. 2016 is on course to be the hottest year ever, setting a record that was set in 2015, which in turn broke the record set in 2014.
Coastal flooding is a reality and is already here in the US, costing millions of dollars. In Fort Lauderdale, FL increased tidal flooding is forcing the city to spend millions fixing battered roads and drains — and, at times, to send out giant vacuum trucks to suck saltwater off the streets. A high tide and a brisk wind, let alone a hurricane, is all it takes these days to send water poring into streets and homes. And with Hurricane Matthew’s storm surge, coastal flooding is happening with a vengeance. However, in Florida state environmental officials have been ordered not to use the terms “climate change” or “global warming” in any government communications, emails, or reports.
Because the land is sinking as the ocean rises, Norfolk, VA and the metropolitan region surrounding it, known as Hampton Roads, are among the worst-hit parts of the United States. Local homes are already being flooded as water seeps into living rooms dampening people’s feet as they sit watching TV. The Obama administration recently gave Virginia more than $100 million to carry out a plan to safeguard this neighborhood. The administration has also enlisted one of the universities, Old Dominion in Norfolk, to spearhead a broad effort at better planning.
Billions Needed to Mitigate “Sunny Day Flooding”
Credit: OB Rag
Norfolk has a wish list of $1.2 billion to do things like installing sea walls, raising streets, or putting in movable gates along waterways so they can be closed at times of high water. Along those parts of the United States coast that are sinking at a brisk clip, including southern Louisiana and the entire Chesapeake Bay region, including Norfolk, the situation is dire.
Miami Beach is increasing local fees to finance a $400 million plan that includes raising streets, installing pumps and elevating sea walls. Already coastal cities are pleading with state and federal authorities for money to build infrastructure to prevent flooding including billions to pay for flood walls, pumps and road improvements that would buy them time.
The ice sheets in both Greenland and West Antarctica are beginning to melt into the sea at an accelerating pace. In 2013, scientists reached a consensus that three feet was the highest plausible rise by the year 2100. Recent research, however, leads some of them to say that six or seven feet may be more likely. A rise that large over a span of decades would be an unparalleled national catastrophe, driving millions of people from their homes and most likely requiring the abandonment of entire cities.
The air is already so full of greenhouse gasses that coastal sunny day flooding will continue to get worse. Local communities not getting any help from governments are starting to take matters in their own hands. In South Florida, among the worst-hit parts of the country for sunny-day flooding, people are not waiting for state or federal help. A company, Coastal Risk Consulting, has cropped up to advise locals and is offering its services nationally.
Cities and counties in the region have formed an alliance and enlisted professors to help them figure out what to do. They are hiring “chief resilience officers,” an idea pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation in New York, which is paying some of the salary cost. Just for streets, storm drains and the like, South Florida governments will need to raise billions. Millions will have to be raised just to replace septic tanks with sewer systems.
And yet Congress fiddles while Earth burns. Unlike Nero, who fiddled while Rome burned, we’re talking about the whole damn earth this time. Governor Rick Scott of Florida, however, has forbidden state officials to even mention global warming or climate change. Gov. Rick, why don’t you get your head out of the sand? You want money and disaster relief, why don’t you own up to what’s causing the disaster in the first place?
John Lawrence
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We have to ration gasoline use immediately but of course the “vested interests” will not give up without a fight. Is there a ration gasoline movement Hope so or in ten years will approach unliveability on this planet. Our poor children and grandchildren!
We are close to a presidential election. If Hillary wins, I think we can expect more of the same… ie, slow progress, too slow to avert the worst affects of climate change. As weather events turn progressively more dire, Hillary will push perhaps a little harder for wind and solar, against the vested interests of the fossil-fuel industries, but it will still be too little, too late. She will continue as Obama has: a concession to the left followed by a concession to the right.
If Trump wins, well, I don’t need to elaborate because we all know the worst will happen.
As for myself, apart from sounding off like this and doing what activist things I can, I feel relatively powerless to change the course of events. I keep thinking back to the 1970’s when poor Jimmy Carter tried to tell Amerika and the world that we’d better get going on alternative energy research because the clock is ticking and time is running short. The best he could do was to pass a 55 mph speed limit law to try to reduce gasoline consumption a little…Amerika essentially ignored him, and when oil prices went back down, GM started selling the Hummer for soccer moms to take their kids to the game in!
It comes as no surprise to me that we are in a desperate scramble now because we failed to heed the advice of President Carter some 50 years ago. We made our bed. Now unfortunately, we must sleep in it.
And Ronald Reagan took the solar panels that Jimmy Carter had installed off the White House. How symbolic! In both directions for both parties. And they call Reagan a great President. Carter was the great President.
TRUMP – a proud non-believer in the science of human induced climate change thinks he knows better than 98% of the world’s scientists whose peer-reviewed studies confirm this fast evolving planet threat. His complete blindness to or categorical dismissal of this dangerous planetary development stands out in his recent humanly irresponsible remarks that he would …
“END American participation in the global climate treaty, SCRAP the current president’s climate change regulations and, according to a campaign document recently released, INVITE TransCanada Corp. to re-apply for a permit for the Keystone XL pipeline.”
(http://www./npr.org/2016/08/08/488816816/donald-trump-looks-to-turn-a- page-on-bed-week-with-economic-speech)
For a sane insight into the reality of transforming quickly to renewable energy sources and the possibilities, and directions for achieving that transformation in time to save most of Earth’s living species, I recommend reading a detailed report just out entitled, “New Energy Outlook 2016,” by Bloomberg – New Energy Finance.
The Bloomberg researchers have concluded that renewables will dominate in Europe and overtake gas in the U.S. Wind solar, hydro and other renewable energy plants will generate 70% of Europe’s power in 2040, up from 32% in 2015. The U.S. share is predicted to increase from a small 14% in 2015 to 44% in 2040 – good, but still far too low.
Here’ an overall picture by energy source of global installed power capacity in 2015 and predicted power capacity additions 2040:
TABLE 1
…………………….2015 (6.41GW)………….2040(13.46GW
Coal…………………31%…………………..16%
Gas…………………..26%…………………..15%
Subtotal………….57%…………………..31%
Nuclear……………..5%……………………4%
Hydro……………….18%…………………..12%
Wind………………….7%…………………..13%
Solar………………..4%……………………29%
Subtotal………….34%…………………..58%
Other………………..7%…………………….3%
Flexible…………….2%…………………….8% Capacity
SOURCE: New Energy Outlook 2016 – Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Flexible capacity includes storage, demand response, other potential resources.
Above prediction is not far from a 2015-2050 forecast I put forward in a joint article entitled, “The Conversion to Renewables Is Going Too Slowly to Avoid Catastrophe – Part 4,” by F. Thomas and J. Lawrence
Hillary’s ambitious residential solar-driven power target is to have a half billion solar panels or 148 gigawatts installed by the end of her term. That’s a seven-fold increase over current 21.12 gigawatts of solar power. It is said to be enough clean energy power to serve all homes by 2027. This challenge is comparable to our WWII armaments build-up challenge!
While commendable, this aggressive transition to residential solar power will NOT happen on such a short time span UNLESS, among other things, the 30% federal tax credit to solar project developers is extended. Problem is this tax incentive expires end of this year and most Republicans want to cut it back to 10%, if not eliminate it. Tax incentives for wind are also extremely important. So Hillary has got to convince Congress to extend and strengthen these incentives.
Hillary and others have the penchant to say we are the technological, innovative world leaders and in the energy industry should be teaching others the way. BUT, we are behind in this race. So I would say we can also LEARN MUCH from how other counties are already leading the way towards a momentous, rapid, innovative switch to clean energy sources and energy efficiency.
I believe a tax on carbon is another essential part of an animated, timely, payable, technically well-integrated transition to solar and wind energy. This tax should be implemented immediately … along with a 2-3 year phasing out of subsidies to fossil fuel firms and a strict enforcement of carbon and methane emissions regulations. Methane leaks from fracking should be severely penalized.
Solar and wind installations/operations are getting cheaper and cheaper and are on a trend to becoming the least-cost power generation technology over the next decade. While government support is still critical, state and local incentives for solar and wind have made California and the U.S. Southwest very big solar markets. All in all, California is far advanced in transitioning to clean energy sources and energy efficiency.
In sum, critically important is the creation of effective and efficient clean energy partnerships among federal, state and local authorities – aimed at providing transparent, uniform performance measurements and periodic reporting of transition progress to solar, wind, biomass, and energy efficiency.
With some impressive exceptions, global conversion to clean energy vehicles is proceeding at an excruciatingly SLOW pace in the scale and speed of the conversion process. Right now, cumulative global sales of highway legal plug-in electric passengers cars is 1 million electric cars out of 1 billion cars on roads worldwide today!
A speck of hope is that one-third of those 1 million electric cars now in stock were sold in 2015! Despite this rapid growth, plug-in electric cars represented a TINY 0.1% of the world’s billion cars on the roads at the end of 2015. Of the top countries in market share in 2015, Norway was 1st at 22.4%; the Netherlands 2nd at 9.7%, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland were next at 2.0%; California at 3.1%; Europe at 1.4%; and the U.S. was certainly not at the top at a dismal 0.7% plug-in electric car market share in 2015.
Delivering the urgent JUMP in growth in solar by 2020 that Hillary is correctly asking for will require continuation of well-focused federal subsidies. It will also require something of the public. And that is that Democrats achieve control of the Senate and possibly the House of Representatives in upcoming elections.
Even if only the Senate is won back, our nation won’t be doomed to an ongoing denial and obstruction by Republican political elites and special interests of the scientific realities of our planet irreversibly warming well above 2 degrees Celsius by 2040 … UNLESS we convert rapidly but efficiently to renewable energy sources and keep atmospheric concentrations well below 450ppm.
Here is correct link:
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/trump-campaign-says-he-would-ask-transcanada-to-reapply-for-keystone-xl-1.3019865
The earth may be heating up but we only have 150 or so years of data out of billions of the earth has been around. Right now we’re heating up because the sun is at it’s sun spot maximum and when that happens the earth get hotter. The sun is fixed to be at a low for sun spots causing a mini ice age. Also we will get colder when the sun gets colder because no matter what heat from earth will be vented out through the lack of supply form the sun. Plus we predict that volcanos have produced more carbon emissions from billions of years and fossil fuels have not even produced a cent of the dollar that volcanos have produced. So then shouldn’t we have had the so called global warming back in the day when we had no factories like so from around the era of the 18th century , have we , the answer is a solid no. Also don’t try to say my own words against me because all we have to do is read the books they hand crafted and get some information out of them piece by piece. My answer is basically that we do not have enough data about the climate for temp to say that global warming is real or fake. We just can’t determend yet.
Patrick, if we wait until we do have enough evidence to clearly determine the cause of global warming and that evidence leads to the conclusion that global warming is indeed caused (at least in part) by human activity, won’t we then be too late to stop it?
What if you’re wrong? We’re all screwed, that’s what! And that’s a chance I’m not willing to take.
Well it will never be to late because the way technology is going we will be able to literally extract all of the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere leaving just enough to keep it from breaking down and don’t try to correct me because I’ve looked at the rate of technology and since the last couple of decades we have been at the peak of our technology and in a couple of years scientists have said we will be able to terraform mars and to do that we have to extract some of the deadly gases in the remaining atmosphere it has 🇺🇸
Also in the last 16 years the temperature of earth has kept the same and the polar ice capes are growing back fast unlike what people say n the 80 and 90’s that the would be gone by now. Well no 😅
And also I forgot to say that before “global warming” their was another scam called global cooling which we thought the earth was going to become a ball of ice, now we think that earth turn into a great big fireball. Also didn’t I mention that the sun is cooling and the heat on earth will vent out fast or run out because the supply does not meet the demand.
Jason, I’ve read all 3 of your rants and notice that you did not answer my question in any of them. Once again, my question is, won’t it be too late if we continue to do nothing and we find out later that global warming is indeed exacerbated by human behavior? How can you reasonably expect that dumping as much carbon into the atmosphere over 100 or more years will have NO effect? How can you possibly think that? Such thinking is totally unreasonable to me.
Is the name you go by Patrick and not Jason? If so, I apologize for my carelessness.