Whew! The primary season is over. There are some ballots to be counted, some celebrating to be done, and some wounds to be healed.
Let’s take a peek at some of what’s coming and a few things needing to be taken care of as we move on.
The media narratives attempting to squeeze the voting results into a sound bite are all over the place.
Fox news thinks it sees the makings of a Republican resurgence in California, translating the over-participation of GOP voters in early contests into a scenario where the citizenry will rise up against overtaxed and overregulated government come November.
Here’s Doug Schoen’s take, as presented on the President’s favorite network:
….as they head into November with a solid arsenal of voter support and a Democratic Party that is deeply divided, Republican prospects are looking a lot rosier than they did heading into Tuesday’s primaries.
A big part of creating an alt-universe to inspire right-leaning voters will be faux (and Fox) news, like the lie currently circulating about Californians now being forced to chose between taking a shower or doing their laundry on the same day.
From the Sacramento Bee:
Taking aim at two water-conservation laws signed last week by Gov. Jerry Brown, a conspiratorial far-right financial blog called Zero Hedge reported Sunday that Californians could be fined $1,000 a day if they bathe and wash their clothes on the same day.
“If you don’t plan to comply it’s going to be way cheaper to move,” the blog post stated.
The bogus information, which appears to have originated on a site called “The Organic Prepper,” was widely disseminated on Twitter and Facebook, and cited by several conservative websites, including the Federalist Papers and Breitbart.
The Bee article fails to mention that Zero Hedge is a source of (dis)information frequently amplified by Russian back social media. I’m not saying the blog itself is a creature of the Putin-verse; its existence outside the realm of the St Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency makes it a useful tool for sowing confusion and dissension.
The Washingon Post’s Greg Sargent says Republicans have given up on running on tax cuts and are embracing fear and loathing of the ‘other’ (meaning anybody not old and white) to energize their base for November:
There are multiple reasons why this may get much, much worse, in effect producing a midterm election that is to no small degree a referendum on Trump’s racism and authoritarianism.
Last night’s results out of multiple states confirm that the hot takes pronouncing Democrats dead and buried were premature. Democrats appear to have avoided getting locked out of any House races in California. They nominated strong candidates in New Jersey, meaning they have retained numerous pickup opportunities in both states. Democrats also flipped a state Senate district in Missouri in a landslide, swinging it by more than 20 points, suggesting that maybe the tightening generic House ballot, while certainly a cause for worry, isn’t the only metric that matters.
Meanwhile, this morning, the Washington Examiner’s David Drucker reports that Republicans are increasingly planning to rely on Trump’s culture-war attacks — particularly those involving MS-13 and football players kneeling during the national anthem — to goose the base in the midterms:
Trump’s habit of ignoring the economic message preferred by House and Senate Republicans in favor of the culture war tropes that propelled him to the White House is increasingly seen as an asset. Though provocative, the president’s rhetoric resonates with the base, offering Republicans a vehicle for matching the Democrats’ critical voter enthusiasm edge.
South America or bust? The California GOP has a slightly different take on what it will take to win in the fall, according to gubernatorial candidate John Cox.
From the Los Angeles Times:
“This debate is going to set up a clear choice between Venezuela, which is what (Lt. Gov.) Gavin Newsom wants California to look like, and the California Dream, which I want to restore,” Cox said on Fox News on Wednesday morning.
Newsom, a Democrat, is the heavy favorite to defeat Cox in November in a state where Democrats overwhelmingly outnumber Republicans. Cox criticized Newsom for backing liberal immigration and taxation policies that he said would turn California into Venezuela, the South American country that is collapsing under autocratic rule with energy and food shortages.
Politico’s California Playbook says the state GOP is playing right into Democrats’ hands:
Democratic insiders helping Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s effort say that Tuesday outcome was no surprise: Since May 2017, their internal polls have been predicting that the former San Francisco mayor would be the strong frontrunner, followed by a “generic” Republican, and that former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa would end up in distant third.
— “Antonio tried to make it a two person race — it never was,” says one key player behind an independent effort backing Newsom. Why? Out of office for five years, Villaraigosa’s geographic base was weak, compared to Newsom, who has maintained a strong identity and robust backing among Northern California voters, who turn out to vote in far greater numbers than their SoCal colleagues.
— Suggestions that Villaraigosa could score Republican votes “was never going to happen,” the insider said. And the $22 million in independent expenditures by charter school advocates sunk in on behalf of Villaraigosa was “folly from the beginning — and a very expensive one,” the Newsom insider said. “If Antonio didn’t have that, he would have ended up behind John Chiang, who came in fourth.”
Great night for Republicans! Congratulations to John Cox on a really big number in California. He can win. Even Fake News CNN said the Trump impact was really big, much bigger than they ever thought possible. So much for the big Blue Wave, it may be a big Red Wave. Working hard!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 6, 2018
Please come campaign for him as much as possible. https://t.co/82iQN3shg6
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 6, 2018
The return of weasel Carl. Republicans are placing a lot of faith in their victory in recalling State Sen. Josh Newman over his support of SB1, the tax bill signed by Gov. Jerry Brown to provide funding for state infrastructure projects.
From the Los Angeles Times:
Every Republican on the November ballot should run on a platform of repealing the gas tax, said David Gilliard, the Republican political strategist behind the repeal measure who also advises several GOP members of Congress, including Reps. Mimi Walters and Jeff Denham, who are among the top targets of Democrats.
“The recall of Josh Newman should send shock waves through the ranks of politicians who supported the massive gas and car tax increases passed by the Legislature last year,” Gilliard said.
Meanwhile, DeMaio, a former San Diego city councilman, said his group is considering possible recall campaigns against other Democratic senators who supported the gas tax, including Anthony Portantino of La Cañada Flintridge and Richard Roth of Riverside.
While GOP’s November ballot measure repealing SB1 is currently polling well enough to pass, they’ll be up against a coalition of business-types, unions, and liberal groups seeking to educate the public on the importance of rebuilding the state’s roads and bridges.
Be very afraid. San Diego’s GOP would like to see immigration thrown into the mix as an issue in the race for Governor.
From the Union-Tribune:
San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer likes Cox’s chances. “It’ll be change vs. the status quo,” said Faulconer, a Republican. “And we need a lot of change.”
And while a Republican hasn’t won statewide office in California for 12 years, Tony Krvaric predicted that could soon change.
“The Democrats in November will be for sanctuary states and the gas tax,” said Krvaric, chair of the Republican Party of San Diego County. “The Republican position will be just the opposite. That will be a clear line between the two parties.”
***
Other contests on the local level are certain to be hard-fought. Front and center will be the matchup between the GOP’s Bonnie Dumanis and Democrat Nathan Fletcher.
The GOP/Lincoln Club’s negative ad campaign against Fletcher, already in motion thanks to a “wink-wink” deal with third-place finisher Lori Saldaña, will continue.
Saldana took to social media on Wednesday (and the comments column at the SDFP) to claim her campaign wasn’t responsible for the nasty mailers flooding local mailboxes during the campaign.
Cough, cough. {bullshit}
It is absolutely true her campaign didn’t pay for those mailers. In fact, they didn’t pay for any mailings…. because they didn’t get enough public support to be able to pay for any.
Her campaign collected a grand total of just over $23,000 in donations this year thru May 19th. Assuming they had no other expenses, that amount would have paid for one mailer. I’m not sure they would be able to afford to mail it. Contrast this dollar amount with the campaign of political novice Omar Passons, who raised more than four times more during the same period.
I think the case could be made she wouldn’t have had a campaign without those attack mailers.
It’s just a coincidence, I guess, her campaign’s Facebook posted images of flyers from a PAC supporting her and opposing Nathan Fletcher. Or that they never got around to publishing any policy proposals on the campaign website.
It’s certainly not a coincidence that Saldaña refused to denounce the half-truths/out-of-context ads spread by the Lincoln Club on the right and Mickey Kasparian’s Working Families Council on the left.
Nobody will be shocked in the likely event Saldaña refuses to support the Democratic winner in the supes contest. Certainly, her league of social media trolls, who made personal attacks their forte, aren’t likely to cease their vitriol.
SDFP’s endorsed candidate in the primary race for County Supervisor was Omar Passons. He lost, and I’m sad about that. But it will be a cold day in hell before I do anything that could be construed as helping Bonnie Dumanis.
Nathan Fletcher is the candidate and deserves support. Period.
If I personally couldn’t stand Fletcher, I’d redirect my energies into another progressive campaign or cause. (I’m good with Nathan and look forward to supporting him.)
The same concept holds true with the 49th Congressional District. I’m a lot less thrilled about Mike Levin than I am about Fletcher, but I’ll be downright angry if the supporters of the other Democratic candidates can’t lick their wounds and get back to work in the only targeted Congressional primary contest in California where Democratic turnout exceeded the GOP.
Don’t like Levin? Here are two other choices.
Thanks to the efforts of those “Flip the 49th” folks, the Republicans are now assured of losing Rocky Chavez’s seat in the Assembly (because TWO Democrats made it to November) and there is a real contender running for the 5th District County Supervisor’s seat.
And so on.
Finally, the organizations most responsible for creating a political landscape built on divisiveness and vitriol need to be held accountable.
I’m talking about the Lincoln Club, for starters. It’s not like trashing Nathan Fletcher was a new strategy for them. In fact, all their activities involve either deception (Facebook’s Community Voices SD) or triggering people’s fears.
Why? It’s because they have nothing positive to sell. “Support our candidates because we stand behind keeping wages too low to live in San Diego” is hardly a winning strategy.
Mickey Kasparian’s Working Families Council needs to just go away, as does the current leadership of the Democratic Party. Fixing these two speedbumps on the road to progressivism is a more delicate matter. I’m open to seeing a negotiated peace as long as the underlying elements in these situations are addressed.
I’ll have more to say on these topics next week.
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Doug Porter
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Doug- I hope you will step back from the personal anger you continue to express towards me and my Supervisor campaign.
Perhaps what is really making you and others so angry: my presence in this election required an honest accounting of certain people’s actions- some yet to come. Cover ups are very expensive.
I have nothing to hide- and the voters, despite being bombarded in the mail, social media and television- still like what my volunteers and I stand for.
Stop trying so hard to convince them otherwise. It’s not healthy.
It has been disturbing to many of the volunteers, supporters and people they have spoken with, as they have walked, phone banked, attended community meetings and done a true grassroots campaign on my behalf. Please at least acknowledge that their unpaid work was entirely separate from the other efforts you seem obsessed with.
On your criticisms of their voluntary and heartfelt efforts: I call bullshit.
Please give them some credit for the positive work they did to create a campaign against $1 million that included some of the dirtiest money in national politics- including Texas oil & gas, climate deniers like Chevron, and for-profit private prison operator CoreCivic that takes children away from immigrant parents in local detention center at Otay Mesa
Moreover, unlike any other candidate in this race- I have been working full-time throughout this election.
I have no spouse to raise $1 million on my behalf.
I pay all my bills with my own teaching salary.
I don’t go to court and ask for relief from paying what I have agreed to support others in my family.
Those things may not get headline news- but it is a more respectful and responsible way to be a candidate.
In the end we will likely raise about $40,000. And so far, I have received over 16,000 votes- not a bad outcome per dollar raised.
I didn’t need to raise as much money as other candidates who have never held office and had little name ID. It takes money to raise your profile- and also to hide the ugly profiles you want voters to forget.
I held my own in this race largely because San Diego voters know me. I’m a lifelong resident. They have agreed with many of my policies, and supported the efforts I’ve advocated for. They admire the work I have done on their behalf as an Assemblywoman, environmental advocate and teacher.
I never had to lie about my sparse attendance in Sacramento, or my NRA endorsements, or votes against gun safety. I had one walk piece- it was about what I have done, and hope to do. I was designed months ago and focussed on my legislative record- not other candidates.
Covering up a horrible voting record takes time, money and determination- and there is collateral damage. It has weakened the Democrat brand, and turned it into “Republican lite.”
Imagine if the campaign covering up all those past votes & actions that ultimately required over $1 million to get 21,000 votes for one Supervisorial district had shared even a small amount with other county-wide candidates- Democrats might have had more to celebrate Tuesday night.
I continue to be asked: Why didn’t they work to weaken the Republican vs. attack the progressive Democrat? One word: fear. They didn’t want to face me in November when more Democrats would be voting.
The fact is, having two Democrats on the November ballot would have been a chance for real discussion about reforming County government, creating a 21st century cannabis office, and pushing in a more progressive direction that protect people’s health, improves housing and nutrition.
Instead: they used the ugliest fear-based attacks that many people deemed “understandable” since he was being “attacked” on his record. In my lexicon we call that “being held accountable”- not being attacked.
If we want to boost voter turnout- let’s run campaigns that educate and inspire people- not frighten and disgust them so they simply stay home on Election Day.
But I suspect that is exactly what we will see in November.
And your ongoing anger, resentment and criticisms are part of the reason why.
I have survived sexual assault. I have survived millions thrown against me by Republicans in my first Assembly campaign, and now by Democrats who want to create a “power couple” for San Diego.
This is an effort that many believe will ultimately fail, while continuing to be expensive, difficult and painful for Democrats.
I approved this comment b/c I think it gives great insight into your character.
I am not angry with you the person. I did not write that person X is blah, blah, blah. And I’ve certainly never resorted to blocking you on social media because I was “angry”, as you did to me a few years back after SDFP wouldn’t publish (It was a group decision, btw) your umpteenth screed against Scott Peters.
I expressed disapproval with the way you waged your campaign. I was, indeed, hostile to your actions. I was upset with the fact you made a deal with the devil. And blithely acted as the victim when you got called on it. There was much personal attack stuff around about both you and Fletcher (and Lorena), and I refused to give it the time of day.
If you’d campaigned on we “need to have a discussion about reforming County government”, I and a lot of other people would have supported you. Instead, your side went for “being held accountable” aka putting a nice veneer on carrying out revenge.
I believe the tactics of your campaign did as much if not more damage to the left in San Diego than the whole Filner debacle.
Basta!
Lori Saldaña, you are aiming these very general self-justifications at Doug Porter, who’s been a serious critic of baloney coming from all organized political machines, not just yours. You would have been more convincing (and so would have been the Democratic County Central Committee) if you could have spoken with clarity about poverty, inadequate budgeting for housing and public health, the overwhelming tendency of establishment San Diego to open its arms to international tourism while its public schools can’t receive enough money to serve a growing population of refugees — problems this online publication has consistently addressed. You’re smart and experienced and qualified, and I think you should rededicate yourself to the specific needs of a growing population of the disadvantaged under a basically Republic oligarchy. Doug Porter has been doing that.
And still no denunciation of the mailers sent by The Lincoln Club. They’re the enemy. Not Nathan Fletcher.