By Doug Porter
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was in San Diego on Sunday, speaking at a rally in the parking lot of Qualcomm Stadium. About four thousand people attended the event, which featured music and other progressive speakers.
Sanders told the crowd “our message is the future of America,” contrasting the small donor base of his campaign with the PACs and corporate executives supporting former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton. When his speech came to the presumptive GOP nominee, he said that Trump would not be elected “Because, in the year 2016, the American people will not accept a bigoted president.”
Was Sunday’s rally part of a sprint to the finish line for the Democratic insurgent’s campaign? Or was it, as mass media outlets have been suggesting, a farewell tour? Tuesday, June 7th, we’ll find out.
Statewide Numbers Cause Concern
From Joe Garafolie at the San Francisco Chronicle:
New voters in California
Will all those new voters actually vote? A record-breaking 2.3 million new voters have registered. Roughly two-thirds of them are under 35 and 26 percent are Latino, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which does a running tally of voter registration.
But so far, only about 10 percent of those new voters have cast early ballots. And only 1 in 8 of early voters have been Latino, leading some — like Mitchell — to wonder what to make of this registration surge.
“The question on Tuesday is who turns out and whether that enthusiasm to register is reflected in enthusiasm to vote,” Mitchell said. “Or was registering just a cathartic exercise in reaction to what they’re seeing happening, and that is where it stops.”
The answer to that question matters, because 60 percent of voters younger than 40 back Sanders, according to last week’s Field Poll, while Clinton enjoys a slight edge (46 to 42 percent) among Latino Democrats.
Meanwhile, in San Diego
Despite polling showing a close race between Clinton and Sanders statewide and a surge in Democratic voter registrations in San Diego, there are indications these newly registered voters are also not voting.
From the Union-Tribune:
Of 254,355 newly registered voters in the county since Jan. 1, 115,112 are Democrats, 60,097 are Republicans and 66,288 are independents, also known as “decline to state.”
That means 45 percent of new voters this year in the county have registered as Democrats, compared to 24 percent for the Republicans, 26 percent for independents and 5 percent for smaller parties…
…Concerns that the surge in newly registered Democrats might not translate to actual votes are supported by early tallies of mail-in ballots.
New voters make up 16.7 percent of the city’s electorate, but they have cast only 13.7 percent of the early ballots, a lower margin than voters who registered before Jan. 1.
The presumption has been these newly registered voters would shift San Diego primary results away from their usual conservative bent. The outcome of down-ballot contests could change the course of San Diego’s political future.
See today’s Jim Miller SD Free Press column for details on these important local campaigns.
#DataFail: Show Me the (Campaign) Money
Articles in the Union-Tribune and Los Angeles Times referencing contributions to presidential campaigns demonstrate the potential pitfalls of “data based” reporting.
Both articles made mention of those listing themselves as something other than employed being the largest single category of Sanders donors. The Times referred to these donors as “jobless.” The UT article referred to those contributing nearly a quarter of the money coming from the La Jolla area zip code as “unemployed.”
Persons without job titles or formal employers are a large part of the economy these days, and the presumption they are somehow “less” or “un” just isn’t good reporting. They can include retirees, housewives, students, the disabled and participants in the so-called gig economy.
With a little bit of luck, some asshole Republican somewhere will latch on to this “jobless” supposition and make the same kind of mistake Romney made with his 47% remarks in the 2012 campaign.
And they came up with different sets of numbers:
Sanders contributions, LA Times, La Jolla (92037): $108, 464
Sanders contributions,UT, La Jolla (92037): $63,800
Sanders contributions, LA Times, Hillcrest (92103) $113,926
Sanders contributions, UT, Hillcrest (92103) $52,400
Sanders contributions, LA Times, North Park (92104) $109,362
Sanders contributions, UT, North Park (92104) $37,439
Sanders contributions, LA Times, Ocean Beach (92107) $59,608
Sanders contributions, LA Times, Ocean Beach (92107) $20,541
Why the difference?
The Times article combined federal reports from the ActBlue fundraising efforts and Sanders’ campaign. The UT article relied on their own Data Watch team’ analysis of Federal Election Commission reports and didn’t include ActBlue data. (Get with the plan, UT, that’s how liberal campaigns are funded these days!)
From the Times article:
The analysis of Sanders’ donations is possible because he relies on a fundraising tool called ActBlue, required by federal law to disclose all donors, regardless of the size of the contribution.
The Times combined federal reports from ActBlue and Sanders’ campaign to conduct an unprecedented analysis of Sanders’ contributors, including identifying people who had given multiple times.
This provided a window into the more than 1 million small-dollar contributors who gave nearly two-thirds of his money. These donors are typically invisible because election law only requires campaigns to disclose the identities of people who contribute more than $200.
Haven’t Voted Yet? The San Diego Free Press Progressive Voter Guide has the info you need. Or if you just need a cheat sheet, use our Procrastinators, It’s Time to Vote guide.
Doom and Gloom Rebuked by Minimum Wage Study
I’ve always found it rather curious that otherwise intelligent people were given pause by the “uncertainty” argument against increasing the minimum wage. After all, many of the people making those arguments also told us that “trickle down” was going to work.
The litany of layoffs, small business bankruptcies, and a stalled economy recited by the Chamber of Commerce as the inevitable consequence of paying people enough to get them off food stamps just doesn’t hold water, according to a study released over the weekend by the Center on Policy Initiatives.
The report – Documented Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on Job Growth, Business Health, Consumer Prices, and Family Spending– concludes:
“The documented results of minimum wage increases are overwhelmingly positive for working people and neutral for businesses.”
“The impact of raising the minimum wage is one of the most researched topics in economics,” says CPI Research Director Peter Brownell. “There is no reason to continue listening to repeated predictions of catastrophe. Higher minimum wages make a tremendous positive difference for thousands of working people, and don’t hurt business growth. And businesses benefit when working people have more money to spend.”
The report also includes new data on strong business growth and increased jobs in San Diego County when the minimum wage has risen statewide.
CPI chart wage
For those of you who haven’t voted yet, keep this report in mind and vote Yes on Proposition I.
The Minimum Wage and Earned Sick Days policy was passed in 2014 by the San Diego City Council, to provide relief for more than 170,000 people who work for wages too low to make ends meet in high-cost San Diego. The policy was to take effect in 2015, but was stalled by a petition drive that placed it on the June 7 ballot.
And while I’m sharing numbers here, take a quick look how things are faring in Kansas, where a Republican Governor and Legislature have implemented many of the policies the trickle-down artists at San Diego’s Chamber of Commerce dream of imposing here.
Those low, low taxes and governments drowning in a bathtub are responsible for near zero job growth, falling income growth (except for the top 1%, of course), and created a “constitutional crisis” over the state’s failure to provide adequate funding for public education.
Only While Male…
…Judges of German descent need apply if The Donald’s got a case going to court.
From Politico:
Donald Trump expanded his argument against a Mexican judge on Sunday, suggesting that a Muslim judge might not be able to rule impartially in a Trump lawsuit either because of his call for a temporary ban on Muslim immigration.
It’s the extension of an argument that has rattled even many Republicans who have denounced as racist the real estate tycoon’s argument that a judge can’t rule fairly based on his ethnicity. But Trump, showing no signs of backing off the suggestion, indicated that he’d include other groups as well.
Quizzed by CBS’ John Dickerson in an interview that aired Sunday on “Face the Nation,” Trump said he’d have similar concerns about a Muslim judge.
On This Day: 1937 – A general strike by some 12,000 autoworkers and others in Lansing, Mich., shut down the city for a month in what was to become known as the city’s “Labor Holiday.” The strike was precipitated by the arrest of nine workers, including the wife of the auto workers local union president: The arrest left three children in the couple’s home unattended. 1944 – The D-Day invasion of Europe took place on the beaches of Normandy, France. 400,000 Allied American, British and Canadian troops were involved. 1968 – Senator Robert F. Kennedy died at 1:44am in Los Angeles after being shot by Sirhan Sirhan. Kennedy was shot the evening before while campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination.
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Doug Porter
Latest posts by Doug Porter (see all)
- Last Call. Last Column. - December 14, 2018
- Which Presidential Candidate Will You Support in 2020? - December 13, 2018
- Mounting the Assault on Big Gay and Other Drivel From SDSU’s Minimum Wage Scrooge - December 12, 2018
The U-T’s just being silly when it claims that newly registered voters might not be turning out to vote. The real eye-opening conclusion is that new voters “make up 16.7 percent of the city’s electorate,” period. To say “they have cast ONLY 13.7 percent of the early ballots” proves that they’re mailed turnout is high, very high, something close to 90 percent. And let’s remember, those who have just registered are a lot less likely to understand they can send in their mailed ballot. Maybe the U-T has the new voter percentages wrong, but I’d say the U-T’s own citation more likely argues that the young are surging toward the polls.
Agree. On a personal level, talked this morning with two newly registered young men who earn a hard living cleaning rat poop from attics and installing new insulation. Both smiled to say they had dropped off their mail ballots at the polls before going to work. You can bet that neither cast a ballot for the bigot. The UT, while improved under Matt Hall’s Editorial hand, enjoys making perceived “minorities” look ignorant via statistical interpretation. I say HA!
My heart shines with the hope that the first woman will be elected president of the United States of America, a woman of our time, Hill Rod Clinton gets my ultimate respect for perseverance and accumulative qualifications and my vote and confidence.
PLEASE SHARE IF YOU PLAN TO VOTE TOMORROW:
Are you SURE you know your polling location for Election Day?
Confirm it here: http://www2.sdcounty.ca.gov/rov/Eng/Polling.asp
Or call: 858-565-5800
I thought I knew where to drop off my ballot- until I received a “Change of Election Polling Place” notice in the mail TODAY- less than 24 hours before walking to my polling location down the street.
If you receive a last minute “Change of Election Polling Place” notice- please notify the County Registrar of Voters office that this is NOT acceptable and could prevent many people from casting a ballot.
Very bad timing- people may NOT get the notice, and go to the wrong place, and not be able to vote tomorrow.
Help your friends: post this notice. Check your polling location.
PLAN to VOTE
If more voters really understand that the asshat GOP candidates by and large originated in LOCAL races, perhaps they would do more down ballot voting too!
Make sure your vote is counted! Thousands of voters were incorrectly given provisional ballots when they tried to vote last week. Hundreds of thousands of ballots are still being counted in San Diego and around California.
If you were given a provisional ballot please read this:
How Can You Check The Status of Your Provisional Ballot?
Every voter who casts a provisional ballot has the right to find out from their county elections official if the ballot was counted and, if not, the reason why it was not counted.
Visit http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status for a list of county contacts and information on how to check the status of your provisional ballot.
Ballot Status | California Secretary of State
Under the federal Help America Vote Act (HAVA) of 2002, every voter who casts a provisional ballot is entitled to find out from his/her county elections official if the ballot was counted and if not, the reason why it was not counted.
SOS.CA.GOV